Euro 2024 Opta Stats Matchday Two: Winners, losers and a 9/1 Golden Boot contender | OneFootball

Opta

Opta run the rule over what happened during Matchday Two

Matchday Two of Euro 2024 has concluded so find out what the Opta Supercomputer says about the winners and losers and how their stats compare to the Betfair odds...

We're through another round of fixtures at Euro 2024 and things are becoming a little clearer as to how the first knockout stage could shape up.

Some teams will be panicking and some ecstatic with their performance. While we briefly pause for breath, let's have a look at what we learned from Matchday 2.

Netbusters

One of the main themes from Matchday 1 has prevailed, with goals still raining in.

There have been 27 goals in the nine matches so far in the second round of group games, bringing the total to 61 in 24 matches.

That total is slightly down from the first round - it currently translates to 2.54 goals per game - but we are still ahead of Euro 2020, which had seen 55 goals by this stage.

We have seen the first 0-0 of Euro 2020. France's game against the Netherlands on Friday night was the first goalless draw in 50 European Championship matches - the last being England 0-0 Scotland at Wembley in 2021.

BTTS has landed in 58% of matches, up from 41% at this stage in Euro 2020. With that in mind, the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goal markets look appealing going into Matchday Three. The the 5/4 available on BTTS or over 2.5 goals in Slovakia v Romania looks particularly interesting.

It is also worth looking at bet builder markets for goals outside the box as well given the amount of long-range strikes there have been.

Youri Tielemans' strike against Romania was the 15th of the tournament from outside the box, accounting for 25% of all goals - up from 13% at Euro 2020.

Winners of Matchday 2

In terms of potential champions, the big winners of this round were Germany and Spain with both booking their place in the round of 16 early.

The former nudged ahead of England and are now rated as the second-likeliest winner according to the supercomputer. Spain, meanwhile, are up three percentage points to 15% compared to Matchday 1 - just 2% behind the Three Lions.

One of the biggest winners of Matchday 2 was one of the biggest losers from Matchday 1, and they didn't even win their match.

Scotland's 1-1 draw with Switzerland kept them alive in Group A. Given other results in the group, the supercomputer gives them a 60% chance of finishing third - they had been rated as a one in two shot to finish bottom after losing 5-1 to Germany last week.

The Tartan Army are also given a 41% chance of qualifying for the round of 16. With a price of 8/5 to do so on the sportsbook - an implied probability of 38.5% - they could represent value.

But the biggest turnaround came from Austria. The Opta supercomputer gave Ralf Rangnick's side a 45% chance of making it out of Group D after their 1-0 defeat to France last Monday.

Following their 3-1 win over Poland, they are now given a 96% chance of doing so and that is reflected in their 1/100 price to qualify.

Staying in Group D, the Netherlands chances of topping the table are up nine percentage points to 40% after grinding out a draw with a Kylian Mbappe-less France.

With France up from 27% to 44% to finish second, the 8/5 about the Netherlands/France straight forecast looks interesting.

While it would be a stretch to say that England were winners, the significance of France potentially finishing second is something to keep an eye on. Should the Three Lions win their group as expected - the supercomputer gives them a 78% chance of doing just that - they could go into different halves of the draw.

While no player has yet scored more than two goals - only three have scored twice - Jamal Musiala can be considered a winner for edging ahead.

With a price of 9/1, he is equal second-favourite despite having at least one goal more than his contenders. That he is also playing for a Germany team that look ominously good will count in his favour.

Cody Gakpo, meanwhile, has lengthened to 25/1 despite losing minimal ground. He has had six shots in two matches and will surely start every game for the Netherlands.

Losers of Matchday 2

Croatia have to be classed as one of the biggest losers from this round of matches. Zlatko Dalic's side were given a 55% chance of making the last 16 before their 2-2 draw with Albania, that is now just 28%.

While that hit is reflected in their sportsbook price of 1/3 not to qualify, they are of more interest at 1/1 (implied probability of 50%) to finish bottom. Opta's predictive model suggests that there is a 56% chance of that happening, up from 25% on Matchday 1.

In Group C, Serbia's chances of reaching the knockout stage took a hit despite Luka Jovic's last-gasp equaliser against Slovenia. Following that match, there is a 67% chance of them being eliminated in the group stage as is reflected in their 2/5 price.

Elsewhere, we can hardly call France losers but - as mentioned above - it is notable that their probability of finishing second rose to 44%. That could put them in the same half as Spain, Portugal and Germany, while it is still unknown when Kylian Mbappe will next feature.

Finally, a word on Poland who were the first team to be eliminated from Euro 2024 following their 3-1 defeat to Austria. Next up, a game against France with nothing to play for. Gulp.