Euro 2024 Last 16 Predictions: Back England at 11/10 with Betfair Exchange | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Jimmy says there is value in backing England to win to nil

Sunday's Euro 2024 action sees England take on Slovakia before Spain plays Georgia. Jimmy The Punt has got bets for each via the Betfair Exchange...

England v Slovakia Superboost

Betfair customers have voted for Sunday's Superboost to be 'England NOT to have a shot in the first 10 minutes (v Slovakia)'. They clearly know their stuff, as the Three Lions have failed to have a single attempt in the opening 10 minutes of any of their three Euro 2024 games so far.

The selection has had a (super) boost up to 3/1!

England vs Slovakia

Slovakia's qualification campaign was forged on a solid defence as they kept clean sheets in half of their 10 games.

Francesco Calzona's side have not quite managed to emulate that in Germany, in fact the underlying data suggests they have been fortunate to concede as few as they have.

Three goals conceded compared to an xGA of 4.40 shows as much, and a big chunk of that came in the 1-0 victory over Belgium. Slovakia rode their luck that afternoon as the Red Devils had two goals disallowed and squandered all four of the 'big chances' they created.

With only two places separating them in FIFA's world rankings, it isn't a lazy comparison to compare Slovakia to Slovenia, not just because they sound similar.

England did not manage to break down stubborn Slovenia or beat Jan Oblak in goal. It is worth noting Slovenia packs more of a punch in attack with the highly rated Benjamin Sesko upfront.

Slovakia do not have any big hitter and have also overperformed their attacking numbers which are a couple of reasons why it is hard to see them scoring against England.

Their drab group stage is why the Three Lions unbelievably solid defence has been overlooked.

Gareth Southgates side have conceded the fewest xGA of any nation to play in the tournament by some distance.

Only Germany (1.80) comes close to England's 1.1.

The issues are obviously at the other end of the pitch but if England do manage to get their act together in attack, they should win this at a canter.

If you don't think it is going to click for Harry Kane and co, the 10.0 about no first goalscorer is worth a punt. Essentially the 0-0 correct score but you are covered if the only goal of the came is an own goal.

If, like me, you think England can find their shooting boots, backing them to win to nil at 2.1 is the bet.

Spain vs Georgia

This match up has got me excited.

Like everyone, I have loved watching Georgia contain and counter their way out of the group with a combination of fortune, a great goalkeeper and two lethal players on the counter attack.

Outperforming their xGA by 4.1 goals is obviously unsustainable but does their luck have to run out in the knockouts? They will only be playing a maximum of four more games and with Giorgi Mamardashvili in between the sticks, anything is possible.

He tops the save per game charts with seven, the next best average in the competition is Romania with 4.3, and Georgia's stopper has single handedly prevented 3.6 goals.

Mamardashvili will have to be on top form against Spain, a nation who beat Georgia 10-2 on aggregate in qualification.

As the odds reflect, La Roja should win this clash. At 1.22, they are the shortest priced nation in this round to progress to the quarters but given the context of the match, I don't think it will be straight forward.

I think this match will be settled on the finest of margins which is where set pieces come into it.

Spain have been the second most prolific side at Euro 2024 from dead ball situations, racking up an xG of 1.34. Georgia, on the other hand, have comfortably been the worst at defending set pieces shipping an xGA of 2.46 from them.

Although Dani Cavajal nodded in from a corner against Croatia, it is Robin Le Normand's price to have a shot on target that appeals here.

Le Normand has averaged 0.4 shots on target per 90 this summer and looks Spain's biggest sep piece threat.

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