Euro 2024 Last 16 Predictions: Back 4/1 outsiders Romania on Betfair Exchange | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Jimmy says there is value in Romania's price at 4/1 to knockout the Netherlands

Jimmy The Punt has cast an eye over the final couple of last 16 games at Euro 2024 where he fancies an upset in Romania's clash with the Netherlands and cards in Austria vs Turkey.

Football... Only Bettor Podcast - Listen for Tuesday's tips here!

Romania vs Netherlands

Tuesday 2nd July, 17:00Live on BBC One

Once bitten, twice shy. Sort of.

Switzerland, 2.28 outsiders, dumped Italy out.

Denmark should have taken the lead but fell foul to VAR twice in the same passage of play before unravelling against Germany.

Slovakia went within 90 seconds of beating England, the favourites. Then later that evening Georgia took the lead against Spain.

If the round of 16 has taught us anything it is beware of the little guys.

So, step forward Romania at 9.40 to beat the Netherlands.

This is the first time the Tricolorii have reached the knockout stage of a major tournament since Euro 2000 when they were knocked out by Italy. In fact, Romania have only ever won one knockout, beating Argentina 3-2 at the 1994 World Cup.

Don't worry about that, the Netherlands have lost their last three Euros knockout games, most recently in their round of 16 clash with Czechia in 2020. And I don't fancy their European knockout hoodoo to end this week.

Ronald Koeman's side didn't exactly sparkle in the group stage. They had to come from behind against Poland, drew 0-0 with France then lost a five goal thriller with Austria and across those three games, they led for a combined total of less than 13 minutes.

The main conundrum for Orjane's manager is who to start upfront; Memphis Depay or Wout Weghorst.

I was shocked to learn the former, a converted winger, is the Netherlands second all-time leading scorer with 46, only four behind Robin van Persie (50).

So, why is he at risk of getting dropped? Well, because Depay has only netted three since the last World Cup, one against Austria this summer, the other two against Gibraltar.

Depay has not created a single chance from open play either, it took Weghorst just two minutes to net against Poland though, yet it is reported that Depay will get the nod on Tuesday.

This blunt edge could be a problem because despite conceding the most shots of any nation left in the tournament (15.3 shots per game), Romania actually face the third-lowest shot quality behind only England and Belgium.

Austria vs Turkey

Tuesday 2nd July, 20:00Live on ITV1

It could be another perfect card storm.

This clash pits the most carded country (Turkey, 16) against the third most (Austria, 10).

Referee Artur Manuel Ribeiro Soares Dias has not started to dish the cards out yet (5Y in two games) but with an average of just under five this season, the Portuguese whistleblower certainly has the pedigree.

Ralph Ragnick's aggressive pressing side topped the charts for tackles (20.3) and fouls (16.3) per game and Turkey's last game (vs Czechia) broke the record for most cards at a Euros game.

Unsurprisingly, there is not much juice in the card lines so the individual player card market might be the way to go.

It is just a question of who to back?

Turkey's Kaan Ayhan at the base of midfield appeals.

With one yellow card it would mean he misses the quarters should Turkey get there but I think he is a prime candidate.

Ayhan only picked up three cards in the Super Lig but notched up three yellows and a red card across 10 European appearances (Champions League, Europa League, Euros).

It is also worth noting he will be opposing Christoph Baumgartner, Austria's most fouled player (2 per game).

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more content!

Recommended bets

Back Romania to qualify @ 5.1

Back Kaan Ayhan to be shown a card @ 2.92