Euro 2024 Group B Review: Immaculate Spain look like tournament heavyweights | OneFootball

Euro 2024

With Rodri in charge of midfield, Spain look formidable

After a last-gasp Italy winner confirmed the top two, Jamie Kemp provides the outlook for the Azzurri and Group B winners Spain in advance of the knockout stages...

England Superboost

Gareth Southgate's men have flown out of the blocks in both Group C encounters at Euro 2024, playing on the front foot from the first whistle and scoring early against both Serbia and Denmark.

We think England will start strongly again tonight, and becaue we like to play different, we're happy to pay out on another fast start for the Three Lions.

So if you fancy England to register at least one shot in the first 10 minutes against Slovenia this evening, then take advantage of our super-boosted price of 1/1 (from 1/4) now.

Optimism building around Spain's trophy credentials

Despite not being heavily touted in pre-tournament discussions about the likely winner of EURO 2024, Spain find themselves at the centre of the conversation following the group stage.

Luis de la Fuente's side took care of business against Croatia and Italy - their two biggest challenges in the group - without conceding a goal. Indeed, their 1-0 result over Italy might not have looked as dominant as the 3-0 versus Croatia on paper, but the performance in the former is one of the best we've seen from any side in the tournament so far, considering the strength of the opponent. Oh, and most of the players from those two games got a rest on matchday three too.

Luis de la Fuente came into EURO 2024 with plenty still to prove as a top-level manager, but their group stage showing has turned many doubters into believers. The results have been there, they've already overcome formidable opposition in style, and perhaps most crucially, their style has been recognisable. La Roja have moved the ball fluently and paired it with a new-found directness, while they've supplemented it with an energetic press too.

Speaking of energetic, I recommended Nico Williams as a candidate for Young Player of the Tournament ahead of the group stage, and that initial 20/1 price has now fallen to 14/1, probably after seeing what he did to Italy and Giovanni Di Lorenzo.

Even with Lamine Yamal - the other half of the team's dynamic wing duo - being at shorter odds to win it 9/2, I still think there's every chance Williams can build a better claim should they go deep into the tournament. Forty-two percent of Spain's attacks in that stunning performance against Italy came down the left side with Williams.

As for Spain's overall credentials as a team, the very real possibility of meeting Germany in the quarter-finals does give me pause when predicting their overall credentials - although at least one big hurdle usually needs passing if you're to make a tournament final. If we're to consider Spain's group stage showings, their non-penalty xG difference (+3.3) was actually better Germany's (+2.5) and done in a tougher overall group.

While acknowledging the size of the task should that meeting with the hosts come to pass, Spain shouldn't fear anyone at EURO 2024. And so at a decent-sized 5/2, which are joint-fourth highest odds to make the final, I think there's good value to be found in them making the showpiece in Berlin.

Italy qualify but too flawed to compare with 2020 side

Croatia were - to be brutally precise - 103 seconds away from finishing as runners-up in Group B. That was, until, Mattia Zaccagni scored the second-latest winning goal in normal time in the history of the UEFA European Championship. Tournament football really is a brutal thing.

Zaccagni's last-gasp strike now means Italy will face Switzerland in the round of 16 on Saturday, and they're the 29/20 favourites to win that match. Based on their group stage performance, however, my confidence in Italy to get the job done in the knockout stages isn't too high.

The Azzurri came into the tournament with ambitions of producing better, more attractive football then they actually have so far. After a bright start on that front against Albania, Italy were made to look feeble by Spain, and then were less than two minutes away from losing to Croatia; a game in which they went back to the 5-3-2 and reverted to a more pragmatic way of playing.

Across their three group stage games, Italy faced as many shots as they've had themselves (34), conceded in all three outings, and their xG against (4) was higher than their xG for (2.7). If you were to award Italy's player of the tournament right now, then their goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma would probably be the clear winner. Based on the quality of shots on target faced using xG, he has prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper at EURO 2024 so far (+3.2).

Of course, the much talked about Riccardo Calafiori might not be a million miles behind, but his tournament appraisal feels more linked to what he's done with the ball, rather than as a pure defender. Without his mazy run and assist in added time against Croatia, Italy wouldn't have even finished as runners-up in Group B.

Within that fact lies a main concern for Italy, and it revolves around the attacking references in this team. Gianluca Scammaca lost his starting place on MD3 after an underwhelming first two games, neither Mateo Retegui or Giacomo Raspadori particularly took advantage against Croatia, and of the likely starters against Switzerland, only defender Alessandro Bastoni and midfielder Nico Barella have scored for the Azzurri at EURO 2024 so far.

In a round of 16 tie against an adaptable Switzerland side - who were a stoppage time equaliser away from beating a full-strength Germany on MD3 - I'll stick with the value and pick a favoured Italy side to see their tournament end here.

Recommended bets

Back Spain to reach the final of EURO 2024 @ 5/2

Back Italy to be eliminated in round of 16 @ 11/8