Euro 2024 Day 13 Stat Pack: Take 6/1 on mutually beneficial draw in Slovakia v Romania | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Lewis is back with his stats pack for the final day of the Group stage at Euro 2024

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - digs through the data and stats to bring forward some betting angles as the Euro 2024 group stages come to a conclusion...

Slovakia v Romania (17:00) - Shall we shake on a draw?

We have to start with the draw price at 11/10 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Romania will qualify to the round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat and Slovakia will finish third if they draw and four points will be enough to qualify as one of the best third place finishers. Mutually beneficial, indeed.

If there is a handshake type situation on the result if the scores are level with 20 minutes to go then building bets that are linked to the likely draw situation into a Bet Builder looks the way to increase that 11/10 into something more acceptable when it comes to the price. Adding under 2.5 goals into the mix at 1/3 is a start and then adding the under 4.5 corner line for both teams also makes sense in what could turn out to be a very noncompetitive encounter if the scores stay level. Combining all of those angles brings about a 6/1 shot.

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Ukraine v Belgium (17:00) - Doubts remain about Belgium backline

Heaven forbid if this game ends drawn too.

Not even the word's most coherent and logical abacus could sort these permutations out as all four teams would finish on four points Group E. It would start by goal difference and then go to goals scored but with all those numbers likely to be similar and even exact across all four teams, the head-to-head criteria would then come into play to rank the teams.

It does look like Ukraine will have to go for it at some stage based on their head-to-head and goal difference situation, so this game stands more of a chance to burst into life. I like them to score in this match. Opposition teams carrying more quality than Romania would have feasted on at least a couple of goals against Belgium as Wout Faes and Amadou Onana were fortunate their errors were not punished. Romania created two big chances - a metric defined by Opta - but wasted both of them and managed to get 14 shots away towards the Belgium defence, which remains a big weakness.

The 4/9 for Ukraine to score over 0.5 goals looks a winner in waiting and that's your starting point for any Bet Builder you're looking to play.

Georgia v Portugal (20:00) - Stopping Kvaratskhelia is a tricky task

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a card drawing machine. At the time of writing, no player has drawn more yellow cards then him at Euro 2024 (3) to a backdrop of six fouls suffered. It mirrors his domestic data where he suffers 1.97 fouls per 90 for Napoli across the last two seasons and has drawn 25 cards off the opposition.

Six fouls suffered already at the tournament, 1.97 fouls per 90 for Napoli across the last two seasons.

We have to take advantage of his card drawing skills by backing the opposition full-back, whoever that may be, to be carded. As team news is a little unpredictable involving teams who have gone six from six in their third game this won't be an official play from me but Nelson Semedo at 11/2 and Joao Cancelo at 9/2 both look outstanding prospects at the prices of picking up a card.

Czechia v Turkey (20:00) - Shots, shots, shots!

I'm surprised to see the draw trading as big as 3.6 on the Betfair Exchange with Turkey coming into this one knowing they will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they avoid defeat. That's the bet if you're looking for an outright play.

Czechia recorded a per 90 average of 16.63 shots in qualifying - the sixth highest of any team - that was more than England, Belgium and Italy and they delivered for those liking those averages against Georgia, firing 27 shots. The likely game-state of chasing the win here could see another healthy average posted by a team that get the ball forward quickly into dangerous areas. I'm .

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more content!

Recommended bets

1pt on the draw, under 2.5 goals & under 4.5 corners for both teams @ 6/1

1pt on Czechia to have +15 shots 13/10