“Data” quote that was mocked in March proving to be true as real life starts to mirror xG | OneFootball

A couple of months ago, when things were going really badly for Chelsea, Mauricio Pochettino caught a lot of flak in a press conference for commenting that his team were performing very well in terms of stats, and were actually top four in some metrics:

“We know really well what we are doing… I don’t take it personally when the fans say that [criticise]… If you look at all the data, in the table we should be in fourth position,” Pochettino said.

“We know really well what we are doing. That’s why I laugh. I don’t take it personally when the fans say that [criticise]… If you look at all the data, in the table we should be in fourth position,” he added.

The quite predictably (and correct) response was that the real table was what mattered, not the xG difference table or whatever he happened to be referring to.

But with that said… It is interesting to know how your team does in these things. And Chelsea fans couldn’t disagree – they were missing chances and conceding silly goals, and were largely performing better than their results.

Chelsea celebrate a win at Stamford Bridge.

How we stand now

Checking back in on FBRef, it seems the team is still doing well in terms of stats. On expected goal difference (the difference between the quality of chances you’ve created and the chances you’ve given up), we remain in fourth place. The difference is that over the last 2 games, our form has started to match the stats.

We should still be realistic: Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool are streets ahead of us. We’re closer to Fulham and Wolves than we are to the table-topping Gunners. But still, it shows exactly what it did back in the Spring when the coach spoke – we’re a couple of bits of luck away from leaping up the table, and it seems we might just be doing that.

With 3 easier games to close out the league, we could yet make Pochettino’s point look not so silly after all.