Data experts predict final Premier League table after Everton points deduction | OneFootball

We all hate technology in football, right? Time after time, it seems it just causes more harm than good. VAR decisions appear to change every week without any reason or explanation as to why. Technology was meant to make the game fairer and easier to understand. Yet so far, its introduction has caused controversy and heated debates between rival fanbases. We don't need anymore arguments between supporters of different clubs just because of what a piece of equipment tells us. Anyway, the supercomputer is at it once again, causing uproar among fans. What were we saying again?

In recent years, it has become commonplace to find different things predicting the outcomes of sporting events. The most recent trend being the 'supercomputer'. This piece of technology uses betting odds, form guides and more to work out the likely probability of results.

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The experts at Opta used this technology at the start of the season to predict the final standings of the 2023/24 Premier League. Since then, Everton have been on the receiving end of a ten-point deduction and now find themselves in 19th place and firmly in a relegation dogfight.

With this in mind, while also taking into account the opening 12 games of the season, the supercomputer has now compiled an updated prediction after an astonishing 10,000 simulations. Here, we will take a look at who's set to go down, who's making Europe and who is tipped to lift the trophy in May.

Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton relegated

Despite being stripped of 10 points and being given a 34.1% chance of relegation, Sean Dyche's Everton side have enough to keep themselves in the Premier League according to Opta, but only just. The supercomputer has predicted that the Toffees will finish one place above the relegation zone in 17th, meaning the team with the most seasons in English football's top division lives to fight another day. That task could be made even easier if they are successful with their appeal, which journalist Paul Brown believes could be a possibility.

As for who goes down, it's heartbreaking news for all three of this season's newly promoted clubs. Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton are all predicted to return to the Championship, with Burnley given a 34.8% chance of coming bottom, while the Blades have a 25.9% chance of finishing 19th and Luton are given a 23.2% chance of finishing 18th. The trio made up the current bottom three before Everton's points deduction, with each of them managing just one victory thus far.

Should this prediction turn into reality, it will be only the second time that all three newly promoted sides get relegated in their first season in the Premier League. The only other time previously occurred 25 years ago. Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace were the unfortunate casualties during the 1997/98 season. For the Tykes, it would be the last time they would feature in England's top tier.

Man United and Chelsea miss out on top four

The European places are hotly contested each season, and this one is no different. As of now, only five points separate Crystal Palace all the way down in 13th, and Newcastle, who are occupying the final European spot.

As a result of this fierce competition, some big teams will miss out on the opportunity to compete in UEFA competitions next season. The most notable omission is Chelsea. Despite their heroic performance last time out against Manchester City, the Opta supercomputer believes that it will be a second season in a row without any midweek football for the Blues, who are given just a 1.6% chance of finishing fourth. Also missing out are Brighton, who made their European debut in 2023 but are not set to return next season.

There will be another type of debut in the Conference League if this prediction is to be believed. However, it's not the type that Manchester United fans will like. There will be no repeat of the third place Erik ten Hag managed in his inaugural campaign, with the Red Devils predicted to finish in seventh and having just a 4.9% chance of finishing fourth.

This is despite the fact that at the time of writing, the Dutchman's side have managed to gain 12 points out of their last five games, more than anyone else in the league over the same period. However, even if they qualify for the Champions League, they could potentially be banned from the competition for 2024/25 if Nice owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe acquires the club.

It is Europa League football for Aston Villa and Newcastle, who are predicted to finish fifth and sixth, respectively. The supercomputer's belief in the two sides is a testament to the work Eddie Howe and Unai Emery have put in since joining their teams, who were both fighting at the other end of the table when they arrived.

The top four sees two sides returning to the Champions League after spells away from the competition. Firstly, Ange Postecoglu is backed to lead Tottenham Hotspur to fourth place after his incredible start in North London. Despite being only two points off the top, Opta has given Spurs only a shocking 0.3% chance of winning the Premier League. The rest of the top three are the only teams given more than a one percent chance.

Man City win Premier League

Unsurprisingly, the predicted top three are teams we have seen battling for the Premier League title in the last three seasons. The frequency with which they have done so may also have played a part in Opta's final standings.

In third place, with a 5.7% chance of glory, is Arsenal. Despite seemingly having the 2022/23 league title in their hands, the Gunners cracked under the pressure, succumbing to the might of Manchester City. This may have played into the supercomputer's decision-making, with Arsenal's ability to maintain consistency in the latter stages of last season perhaps showing an inability to cross the line in first. However, with them just one point behind Man City currently, this year could be their year, especially if they follow up their interest in Brentford talisman Ivan Toney.

Ahead of them, with a 9.3% chance of lifting the trophy, is Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool. Despite not finishing in the top four in the 2022/23 season, the Reds have returned to form this campaign and are back among the chasing pack. A second-place finish would be a marked improvement and a step back in the right direction. However, the supercomputer is not backing the Merseyside outfit to make a dent on the predicted champions.

If you guessed that Manchester City would be predicted to come out on top for the fourth season running, then you are a genius because you are as smart as a supercomputer. Giving the 'Cityzens' a whopping 84.3% likelihood of finishing in first, Opta is braced for another season of dominance for Pep Guardiola's troops. Should City manage this, they would be the first team to ever win four consecutive Premier League titles, surpassing rivals Manchester United, who managed the 'three-peat' twice under Sir Alex Ferguson.