Dan’s Euro 24 Predictions Group B – Analysis of Spain, Italy, Croatia and Albania’s chances | OneFootball

Dan’s Euro 24 Predictions

Group B

David Raya probably won’t be the Spanish number 1 in Germany. Italy of course are the European Champions with Jorginho one of the few experienced members from that squad three years ago. Perhaps the bigger Arsenal connections is our former left back Sylvinho leading Albania. That makes the Brazilian the first Gunner to manage at the European Championship!

Spain – 1st

Spain have had the same issue for a few tournaments now. Before Euro 2008 Pep Guardiola taught the country his ethos. If the opposition don’t have the ball, how can they score? The principles would be keeping possession and winning it back as quickly as possible, the few times they lose it.

Barcelona and the Spanish national side 2008-2012 were the greatest teams of my lifetime.

A generation of talent able to pass the ball means they continue on their day to be able to beat anyone, but do they have an alternative when the sideway passes don’t work? That’s been the same question for a long time now.

In wingers like Nico Williams and even 16-year-old Lamine Yamal they have a plan B they didn’t have previously, although the Spanish public have or will never trust Morata as the man to convert their chances.

Without that natural finisher in the final third La Roja will almost have to be perfect to win the tournament. In their last three consecutive competitions they have been knocked out on penalties having moved the ball sideways for 120 minutes, unwilling or unable to try something different.

That’s the question marks over Luis De la Fuente.

Croatia – 2nd

While the other three teams have uncertainly in personnel, you know what you’re going to get with Croatia. Is there a more settled squad in the tournament in terms of every player knowing their job? That same experience and knowledge which is their asset could equally be their undoing. Modric is 38, Perisic and Vida are 35, Kovacic and Kramaric over the age of 30. Law of averages one day age will catch up with them and it could happen in the Group of Death. I actually think the tougher the opposition the more they thrive. Didn’t play great in qualifying so might start slowing (could even struggle in their opener) and get better as they go along, but if it comes down to them v Italy for 2nd place in the final game, that’s where their game management will be apparent. No one will want to face them in the knockout stages. That’s when they come into their own, the masters of staying in a game

Italy – 3rd

Given it happened sandwiched between two World Cups they were not part of, it’s hard to forget that the Italians are the reigning European Champions. Ironically the hero from three years ago is the same man responsible for a messy route to Germany. Roberto Mancini left 2 games into the qualifying campaign. While he maintains he fell out with his FIGC, he took the Saudia Arabia job two weeks after his resignation. It means Luciano Spalletti has learnt on the job with it still unclear what his best team and formation is. That’s in contrast to three years ago where they built their system on attacking full backs and had the experience of Bonucci and Chiellini. The Azzuri media and fans seem more understanding this time round that the squad is a work in progress, perhaps grateful they have a manager the calibre of Spalletti, who after lifting Seria A almost did his country a favour by ending his sabbatical early after his Napoli break. Fans questioning their keeper, injuries to defenders, a lack of a clinical striker, a betting scandal, etc, all reasons why Spalletti needs more time. Yet that’s why I think the Group of Death might suit them? It’s in Italy’s DNA to play at their best when feeling the world is against them and having to fight from underneath. Third will be good enough in this group to be in the knockout stages but retention is unlikely.

Albania 4th

It was fascinating to read up on Sylvinho’s Albanian story. There has been something old school about his coaching. First, he insisted on living in his adopted country, then he and his staff (including Pablo Zabaleta) spent hours of watching videos on leagues around the world identifying individuals who would qualify to play for the country. Scouting from Wycombe to South Korea, finding talent who met FIFA criteria through being born, residential or parents or grandparents rules to represent Albania. This has made the current coaching team heroes in Albania, as previous regimes didn’t go to the length of finding out this much detail. Of course they are underdogs, who wouldn’t be in a group like this? Yet they might be more competitive then you might think? They only conceded 4 goals in qualification where they finished above the likes of Poland and the Czech Republic. The issue is out of all the group winners, their record of 12 was the lowest. Think how many chances they will make in their three matches and if their conversion rate will be good enough? Unlucky with the draw but will be more competitive than some think and might even get an upset at some point.

If you finished in top 24 in Predictions League and have yet to confirm your entry or want to be on standby for the Euros, please let me know by Thursday night as we will then be drawing the groups.

Dan

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