Czechia v Turkey: Cards on the menu in group decider | OneFootball

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Lukas Provod was booked in Czechia's last game against Georgia

With both Czechia and Turkey chasing a spot in the last 16 of Euro 2024, a hard-fought game featuring plenty of cards is expected by our football props column...

Czechia v TurkeyWednesday 26 June, 20:00Live on ITV4

With Portugal having already won Group F, this looks the game to watch on Wednesday night.

Turkey are in control of second spot - they need a draw to secure it - but will face a determined challenge from a Czech side who must win to stay in the tournament.

It's a scenario similar to the one we had in Group B on Monday when Italy just about got the point they needed, with Croatia being denied the win they required at the death.

That game was notable for producing eight cards and something similar would be no surprise here.

Leg 1: Over 4.5 cards

Turkey had the worst discipline in qualifying, collecting 27 cards in just eight games, and they've picked up five in this group so far.

The Czechs, set to be without star striker Patrik Schick due to injury, have outdone them on that front, receiving six yellows.

Istvan Kovacs is the man in charge and the Romanian is known as a pretty strict referee.

In UEFA club football, he's shown at least four cards in 29 of his last 38 appointments, while his record at international level is similar with nine of his last 13 games seeing over 3.5 cards.

He's actually produced at least six in four of his last five, including his first game of this tournament, Slovenia v Serbia, when he dished out six.

Throw in the high-stakes nature of the game and over 4.5 cards goes straight onto the Bet Builder slip.

Leg 2: Lukas Provod to be shown a card

I also want to add a player-card bet with the man in question being Lukas Provod.

The Czech midfielder was carded against Georgia last time out and has now been booked in five of his last 11 internationals.

He's committed five fouls in the two matches so far - and been fouled four times - so looks set to be in the heat of the battle in the middle of the park.

The double pays just under 5/1.

For those seeking something bigger, consider adding Zeki Celik for a card - if he starts.

The right-back was carded against Portugal the other day, meaning he now has four cards in his last seven competitive internationals, one of which was a brief substitute appearance on matchday one.

I did consider shots but, as we saw in Croatia v Italy, if a team gets into the position they require, it's easy for them to take on a defensive mindset and then the shots dry up.

With the prices suggesting plenty of shots from both sides, I prefer to eliminate that risk and stick to the cards markets.

More Euro 2024: Read Lewis Jones' Wednesday Stat Pack!

Recommended bets

Back over 4.5 cards and Lukas Provod to be shown a card @ around 5/1

Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 292pts Returned: 320.31pts P/L: +28.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts