Czech Republic v Turkey: Final day shootout fancied | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Turkey boss Vincenzo Montella has been heavily criticised back home

Football tipster Mark O'Haire previews the finale of Group F as Czech Republic chase a vital victory against a Turkey team that only require a point to progress.

Czech Republic v Turkey Wednesday June 26, 20:00Live on ITV

All-or-nothing for Czechs

Czech Republic head coach Ivan Hasek was left frustrated after seeing his side fail to secure maximum points over Georgia despite a dominant display. The Lions suffered last-gasp heartache in their opener against Portugal and were eager to get off the mark on MD2, racking up 27 attempts, 15 shots inside the box, and an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 3.07 xG.

However, Georgia goalkeeper Georgi Mamardashvili produced a Man of the Match display to keep the Czechs largely at bay with Hasek's troops having to settle for a share of the spoils - their 12 shots on-target being the most by a team who failed to win the match at the UEFA European Championship on record (since 1980).

Hasek said, "We dominated the game, but failed to score the second goal - attempts speak for themselves. I was pleased with the overall performance, although we have to be more clinical going forward."

That task has been made harder following the news star striker Patrick Schikh will now be missing for Czech Republic's final group game on Wednesday.

Turkey eager to bounce back

Turkey boss Vincenzo Montella faced heavy criticism back home following the Crescent Stars' 3-0 reverse against Portugal on MD2. The team's prospects of reaching the Euro 2024 knockout stage remain in the balance but the Italian coach calmed for calm, suggesting his side will be well capable of a positive response in a must-not-lose match-up this midweek.

Samet Akaydin's comical own goal after Bernardo Silva's 21st-minute opener allowed Portugal to cruise to victory, yet Montella remained pleased with team's efforts, saying: "We had our chances and we didn't capitalise, they punished us for every little error. It was an even match and the bad luck of the second goal changed the balance of the game."

Turkey need a point from their clash with the Czechs to guarantee second place behind Portugal and a last-16 spot and Montella's men will again by backed by a partisan crowd of Turkish supporters. The Crescent Stars are also expecting to have Arda Guler available from the off after the Real Madrid starlet wasn't fit enough to start against Portugal.

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Inconsistent and untrustworthy teams

Czech Republic 2.60 are perhaps the surprise favourites heading into Wednesday night's contest, though the odds have artificially shortened due to the duos requirements based on the pool's permutations. The Lions know victory is a must if they have aspirations to play knockout football, whilst Turkey 2.90 must avoid defeat to secure second place.

Turkey have taken top honours in each of the last three meetings between the pair yet neither side particularly appeal at the prices. Czech Republic have W3-D5-L6 in their last 14 competitive matches - their only victories arriving against Moldova, Faroe Islands and Poland. Meanwhile, Turkey have lost four of their most recent seven outings (W1-D2-L4).

I'll therefore be ignoring the 1x2 and Asian Handicap markets and instead focus our attention on goals.

Final day shootout fancied

Third round group games at major tournaments tend to open up with goals per-game averages increasing from 2.15 in the first round to 2.62 in pool stage concluders from the European Championship. Since the start of Euro '96, a reasonable 51% of third round group games have produced Over 2.5 Goals 1.92 and there's plenty on the line here.

With that in-mind, Over 2.5 Goals looks the obvious angle of attack. Czech Republic have scored in 16 of their last 18 internationals with 10 of their last 13 seeing both sides score. The Lions have to go for the win here but their only clean sheets in 16 meaningful matches have come against minnows Moldova and Faroe Islands.

Turkey have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in seven of their previous 11 and the Crescent Stars have managed a solitary clean sheet in eight under Vincenzo Montella's tutorship. Meanwhile, three of the four Group F games have featured three strikes or more, whilst three of those four fixtures have also delivered Over 2.5 Goals profit.

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Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.98