Crystal Palace v Aston Villa: Back Over 2.5 goals at 19/20 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Stinch is back to preview Crystal Palace v Aston Villa in the FA Cup Semi-Final

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Crystal Palace v Aston Villa in the FA Cup Semi-Final on Saturday evening...

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Saturday's Superboost is for the 12:30 kick-off at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea host Everton. Pedro Neto has looked threatening in recent games, with six shots on target in his last three, and the Portuguese should be key for Enzo Maresca's men in this battle of the Blues.

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Crystal Palace v Aston VillaSaturday April 26, 17:15Live on BBC One

The Context

Just one match stands between these two sides and an FA Cup Final. Two time runners-up most recently in 2016 (Alan Pardew dance anyone) Crystal Palace are 5/4 to make the final in just Oliver Glasner's first full season in-charge. Aston Villa may be seven times FA Cup Champions but their last success was way back in 1957 and they haven't won a trophy since the League Cup in 1996, finishing runners-up no fewer than four times across the two domestic cups since. Their favourites to qualify at 8/13 for a manager in Unai Emery who hasn't won a trophy since lifting the domestic treble with PSG in 2018.

The Prize

My first instinct here is to think of a tight, low scoring game with a cup final on the line, which indeed the market supports at 3/4 but looking back at previous semi-finals, they don't always play out that way. Since the semi-finals were moved to the new Wembley stadium in 2008, there have been seven ties that haven't featured one of the traditional 'big six' sides, and only three have finished Under 2.5 goals. Three of those were all Premier League ties and all three finished with Over 2.5 goals, including Crystal Palace when they beat Watford 2-1 in 2016 with the bet won after just an hour.

The Goals

It's a small sample but given the relatively short price of 3/4 I have to go with the bigger value-looking price, and that's to back Over 2.5 goals at 19/20. Regular readers will know it's been pretty much my go to bet in the Premier League this season and with good reason to given the success, particularly as I backed it when these two met just a couple of months ago at Selhurst Park where Crystal Palace ran out 4-1 winners.

And given Aston Villa are 23/20 favourites here we really must revisit their defensive issues this season. They may be in great form having won 11 of their last 14 games across all competitions but they've only kept six clean sheets in 25 games away from Villa Park in England and Europe this season. As a result, 71% of their Premier League matches have seen Over 2.5 goals, which rises to 77% away from home (13 of 17). Against Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, they've beaten both Spurs and West Ham 2-1.

Crystal Palace are also in good form having bounced back well recently to 5-0 and 5-2 defeats to Newcastle and Man City respectively, firstly getting a point against Bournemouth when down to 10 men for half of the game, then twice coming back from a goal behind against Champions League semi-finalists Arsenal to draw 2-2. It means they have lost just six of their last 28 games across all competitions, scoring two or more goals in 16 of those games.

Overall eight of their last 13 matches against Premier League opposition have seen over 2.5 goals and I have to back Over 2.5 goals yet again given the prices.

Column P/L 2024/25

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Back 1pt Over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Aston Villa at 19/20

Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

It is not yet known whether Marcus Rashford will be deployed on the left at Wembley or up front. Only Unai Emery can answer that. Only the Spanish coach knows if Ollie Watkins is set to start, feeding off deliveries from his England team-mate, or if the striker will once again reluctantly reside on the bench, steam coming out of his ears.

Thankfully though, when it comes to accruing shots on target, it doesn’t really matter where Rashford is stationed, as his two FA Cup starts illustrate.

Away to Cardiff in the fifth round, the in-form loanee drifted in from the flank to blast three SOT from six attempts on goal. Away to Preston in the quarter-finals – this time played centrally - he let fly on five occasions, and with his aim truer at Deepdale, four found their target. Two went in.

Granted, from this we can deduce that Rashford’s tally will likely be higher if played as a number nine but here’s the crucial detail when it comes to this particular build up bet – Jean-Philippe Mateta has only matched either return on three occasions in 2024/25.

The Palace striker’s 0.92 SOT per 90 compares favourably to most but his SOT record is steady, consistent. He has posted a single SOT 15 times this term.

Rashford is the man to back on the big stage to rack up big numbers.

Player to win more fouls

On Wembley’s spacious pitch the temptation here is to plump for a winger to draw more fouls than others. It is all-too-easy to imagine them isolating their full-back, prompting panic and a shirt-pull in the process.

Eberechi Eze comes most readily to mind, therefore. An attacker who has completed 2.3 dribbles per 90 this season.

In his last eight outings, the Palace star has won 11 fouls, an impressive tally and one that trumps John McGinn’s nine fouls won, the midfielder operating more centrally.

But for this particular build up bet we’re convinced by one pertinent detail. When these sides met at Selhurst Park in late February, McGinn drew six fouls. That’s the highest number anyone on the pitch this Saturday has been responsible for all season.