Croatia v Italy: Azzurri to frustrate Dalic's side in defining game | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Croatia have struggled to maintain their usual levels at EURO 2024

Croatia's final chance to save their EURO 2024 campaign is here, but Jamie Kemp is expecting a more pragmatic Italy to ensure that Zlatko Dalic's side head home early...

Football Only Bettor Euros Daily Podcast - Listen to Monday's tips here!

Croatia have left it late to try find winning formula

Ahead of their final group stage game, the task is simple for the defending champions Italy. Anything but a defeat will secure their passage into the knockout stages, and the odds are strongly in their favour to do so. According to the Opta supercomputer, the Azzurri have a 90% chance of progressing from here.

For Croatia, meanwhile, they'll need a win here to be in control of their own destiny. Zlatko Dalic's side head into MD3 bottom of Group B on goal difference following a draw and a loss from their first two games, which even as someone who tipped them not to qualify from the group stage beforehand, does still come as a surprise.

Indeed, it's been a strange tournament for Croatia so far. While clearly underwhelming in their performance levels and lacking the midfield authority they've had in previous years, they've still generated plenty going forward. Zlatko Dalic's side have had 38 shots across their first two games, while racking up over five expected goals. The problem is they've underperformed their xG to the tune of three goals.

Uefa European Championship Finals - Top 10 Shots

Powered by

Along with not finishing as much as they should have, Croatia have found themselves in the position at EURO 2024 of having to direct the game with the ball, having fallen behind early in both games. Dalic's men have only won one of their last seven games at major tournaments (World Cup/EUROs) when they've had more possession than their opponents, which could well be the case again here, given their need for three points.

Overall, I'm going to opt for a draw in Leipzig on Monday night. Croatia have struggled to turn their initiative into results at EURO 2024, while they've drawn five of their last nine games at major tournaments. On the other hand, Italy only narrowly edged out Albania despite an otherwise fluent performance, and none of their last seven major tournament games have been decided by more than a single goal.

Knowing a point will guarantee their qualification, there's every chance the Azzurri will get taken by a wave of pragmatism in the heat of the moment. Just like old times.

Andrej Kramaric has been Croatia's best source so far

In a game where Croatia are going to have to force the issue - provided they can't get themselves ahead early on in the game - I'll go with Zlatko Dalic's side to have more corners as a starting point for a bet builder here.

Across the last 14 matches in which they've had more than 50% possession (since the start of 2023), Croatia have averaged 5.6 corners per game. And particularly if Ante Budimir gets the nod to lead the line for them against Italy, expect the service into the box and pressure on the penalty area to aid their accumulation of corners.

Elsewhere, I'll add Andrej Kramaric to land 1+ shot on target for Croatia here. The 33-year-old netted their equaliser at 1-1 against Albania last time out, and has looked the most reliable of his team's attackers so far, while also having the highest non-penalty xG (0.7) in the side at EURO 2024.

Kramaric has recorded at least one shot on target in eight of his last nine starts for Croatia (15 overall), while he's averaged 2.4 shots per start across his last 14 for his country.

And finally, I'll also throw in 1+ shot on target for Mateo Retegui. The Argentina-born striker hasn't started at EURO 2024 yet, but with Gianluca Scammaca's performances across the first two matchdays not being particularly impactful, now looks an opportune moment to bring Retegui back into the fold.

The Genoa striker has scored four goals in five starts for Italy, including a brace in a 2-1 against Venezuela in his first start under Luciano Spalletti. Indeed, he's landed five shots on target in the five games he's been in the starting XI for the Azzurri and should be motivated to get on the scoresheet here, if handed the opportunity.

Recommended bets