Crisis at Milan: How we got here, Pioli’s future and the elephant in the room | OneFootball

Since the start of 2023, the situation has gone from bad to worse for AC Milan on all fronts. Suddenly fighting for a top-four finish instead of the Scudetto, Stefano Pioli finds himself in his toughest moment yet at the club.

Few could have predicted that the collapse against Roma, resulting in a 2-2 draw, could have set off such a negative turn of events for Milan. Yet, six games later, the Rossoneri are still winless and find themselves in a full-blown crisis.

This crisis culminated last night as Milan faced Inter in the Derby della Madonnina. After a full week at Milanello, the fans expected to see some change and while Pioli did make changes, they were for the worse. The game finished 1-0 in favour of Inter and Milan had zero (!) shots on target, with a pathetic 35% possession.

Needless to say, this season could be a disaster for Milan as they are currently in 6th place in the standings. So, after winning the Scudetto and getting tons of praise from various fronts, how did the Rossoneri end up here?

It’s a negative journey that has several causes. In fact, they are too many to dissect in this article alone, but there are a few key factors that must be mentioned. First of all, and with yesterday’s derby fresh in mind still, Pioli’s coaching must be analysed.

From masterclass to disasterclass

Most of us that watched Pioli’s pre-match conference got the feeling that the manager really had been working on something during the full week at Milanello. Such a long training period doesn’t come around often these days and the manager made sure to point that out.

Hours before the clash, the 3-5-2 hypothesis gained further steam but the big surprise was the exclusion of Milan’s big star, Rafael Leao. A tactical choice, most of us assumed, but it’s a choice that was criticised regardless.

Once the game kicked off, it became painfully clear that Pioli’s masterplan was far from that, but rather a ‘park the bus’ strategy. After the game, he even stated that this was necessary to ‘not lose by a bigger margin’. And with that, the decision to bench Leao aroused even more confusion.

In the second half, Pioli went back to some of the basics of football, taking off the unsuccessful Junior Messias and also bringing on Leao. Because, you know, often to win games you need your best players on the pitch. In short, he managed to put out a fire that he started himself. Congrats, Pioli.

Yesterday’s game was just one of many questionable tactical approaches from the manager. Sometimes changes have not been necessary, but he has made them anyway. And sometimes, when change has been necessary, he has been too rigid.

No one has ever doubted Pioli’s abilities as a stabiliser. In fact, this was the key reason why Milan hired him in the first place. He came in and rescued Milan from a crisis similar to this one, the problem is that he has rarely excelled past that stage with any of his clubs. And what happens when he causes the crisis? Well, historically he has then been sacked.

If in a full week’s time, the 3-5-2 with Messias a mezz’ala was the only solution Pioli could come up with for the derby, then one is only right to question him. As said, this is something that we have seen far too often during his Milan tenure, unfortunately.

Lack of reinforcement and implementation

It’s true that Milan, Paolo Maldini and Ricky Massara specifically, didn’t do enough in the summer to strengthen the team after winning the Scudetto. Certain players such as Franck Kessie were not properly replaced and this has come back to haunt the team.

This is a topic that we have discussed many times, though, and it also deserves a separate piece with greater detail. Therefore, in this piece, there is one certain aspect we must focus on with regard to the signings: the implementation.

During yesterday’s derby, many were pleasantly surprised by the performance of Malick Thiaw, who came off the bench to replace Matteo Gabbia. He looked confident and above all mature, posing the question of why he hasn’t played more.

The answer to the above is very simple and doesn’t just concern Thiaw, but also the likes of Yacine Adli, Charles De Ketelaere and Aster Vranckx. While all of these could have done more, Pioli has been too reluctant to give them the opportunity. And we all know that especially young players need playing time.

Sandro Tonali is often brought up as an example of a player who ‘failed’ in his first season and then blossomed in the second. However, an important detail is that he actually played quite a lot in his first season. This gave him the experience needed to learn and improve, which the summer signings of 2022 haven’t got.

Pioli’s integration methods, in short, have only confirmed that there is currently no synergy between the ownership/management and him. The whole basis of Milan’s project is signing young players, revitalising them and then reaping the reward. But that is hard when the manager doesn’t field the new signings.

Injuries, injuries and injuries

To cut Pioli some slack, and this is all he will get in this piece, Milan have struggled with many injuries this season. It hasn’t made the situation easier and the absence of especially Mike Maignan has been felt.

On the other hand, the basis of these injuries is not just the tight schedule, but also the training methods. A change will be needed on this front in order for Milan to compete at the very top, consistently that is, and work is already underway to hire more athletic trainers for that exact purpose.

In the Scudetto season, Milan also struggled with many injuries but they managed to find ways to work around it. That workaround was referred to as fighting spirit by us, something that is completely missing at the moment. Nevertheless, the injuries are somewhat of an excuse for Pioli (he’s running out of them, so he should cling to this one).

Elephant in the room

There is another obvious issue that needs addressing: the supposed harmony within the team. Pioli made it very clear during the pre-match presser that the team is united and that they are all fired up to change the negative trend. Well, while they all want to get out of this crisis, it’s not all fine and dandy.

The players are tired physically and frustrated with the situation, also knowing that the tactics implemented thus far have not worked. And there is perhaps more to the story with regard to Leao’s exclusion from the starting XI.

After the embarrassing defeat against Sassuolo, there were strong whispers of heated arguments in the dressing room afterwards. Granted that there are heated arguments after almost every loss, this was different. In fact, the very brave Franco Ordine even asked Pioli about this at the pre-derby press conference. Of course, he got a diplomatic response.

But the rumours that have surfaced in recent days are unfortunately not made out of nothing. A few of the Milan stars didn’t appreciate this new post-defeat approach, even though a full break in relations hasn’t taken place. These things always have an impact, though, especially when your supposed biggest strength is unity.

Pioli’s future

We have arrived at the most complicated part of this piece, as funny as that sounds. Pioli deserves to be sacked for yesterday’s loss, but also because Milan have gone seven games without a win, conceding 18 goals in the process. The problem, however, is who can replace him.

Milan have indirectly confirmed their faith in the manager and a change is not on the horizon as things stand. Pioli has a contract until 2025 and sacking him would mean paying €1m between now and the end of the season for nothing (he earns €4.1m per year).

If things were to continue like this, though, then he won’t last until the end of the season as Milan desperately need to qualify for the Champions League. A caretaker of a convenient kind could, after all, be enough to restore some enthusiasm and claim a top-four finish before hiring a long-term manager in the summer.

The latter, hiring a new manager in the summer that is, is a hypothesis that is gaining more and more steam. Barring a sensational turnaround, and this is my opinion, Pioli will leave Milan at the end of the season and the Rossoneri will hire a more suitable manager for the project.

He remains the manager for now though, simply because of the struggle it would be to find a caretaker. However, Milan certainly have options in mind for the latter role, meaning Pioli is still under tremendous pressure to turn this around.

In just eight months, Pioli has gone from hero to zero and the future isn’t looking that bright for the 57-year-old.