Concacaf Gold Cup: Way Too Early Predictions for 2025 | OneFootball

With just over one year to go until Concacaf hosts the FIFA World Cup 2026, teams are in the thick of qualifying with hopes of joining the three pre-qualified host nations, USA, Mexico and Canada.

World Cup qualifying pauses through the summer, though, for the bi-annual Concacaf Gold Cup, which pits 16 teams from across Concacaf in a battle for regional supremacy.

While the tournament won’t kick off until June 14, Sports Illustrated dove into some way-too-early predictions after Concacaf announced the draw on April 10.

How will the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup unfold?

Sports Illustrated’s Way Too Early Gold Cup Predictions

Raul Jimenez led Mexico to their first Concacaf Nations League title in March / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Group A: Mexico, Costa Rica, Suriname, Dominican Republic

The last several years have not been great for Mexico’s men’s national team, but things are looking up, coming into the 2025 Gold Cup after lifting their first Concacaf Nations League trophy in March.

While there are still doubts about the lineup, Raúl Jiménez finally hit form with El Tri, scoring five goals throughout the competition, including winning goals in the semifinal and final against Canada and Panama. At the same time, it looks like they have a new starting goalkeeper in Luis Angel Malagon, making this group relatively easy for them.

Suriname, meanwhile, improves every window with more commitments from Dutch players, switching to represent the southernmost Concacaf Nation. Among their standouts are Queen’s Park Rangers left-back Kenneth Paal and Real Sociedad striker Sheraldo Becker, who is expected to be back from injury.

Costa Rica will come close to advancing but won’t be able to edge out Suriname, while the Dominican Republic will take away significant learning experiences from their Gold Cup debut.

Group B: Canada, Honduras, El Salvador, Curacao

Canada are expected to bring a near full-strength squad to the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Even without Alphonso Davies (injury) and Stephen Eustáquio (FIFA Club World Cup), Canada are the heavy favorites in Group B and have lofty expectations. Led by head coach Jesse Marsch, Canada will likely send as close to a first-choice roster as possible, potentially including Ligue 1 standouts Jonathan David and Moïse Bombito.

While they weren’t able to win a trophy from the Concacaf Nations League, winning their first Gold Cup since 2000 is one of the program's top goals, and they have the depth to do it. Even if David should skip, the Canadian squad can turn to several in-form strikers, including Promise David, Tani Oluwaseyi, Cyle Larin, Daniel Jebbison, and Jacen-Russell Rowe.

Joining them in advancing will likely be No. 90-ranked Curacao, who, like Suriname, improve each window with commitments from Dutch players with Curacao heritage. They will undoubtedly face a challenge, but their rise coincides with a down spell for Honduras and El Salvador, potentially enough to put them into the knockout stages.

Group C: Panama, Jamaica, Guatemala, Guadeloupe

Leon Bailey played a key role in Jamaica's qualification for the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

One of the more lopsided groups in the tournament, Panama and Jamaica should be the easy picks to advance to the knockout stages.

Panama is coming off an impressive run in the Nations League, which included an emotional victory over the U.S. men’s national team, before falling in the final to Mexico. However, head coach Thomas Christiansen has his side on a high and will lean on midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla for success this summer.

Jamaica had a close call in their preliminary round efforts to qualify for the summer’s tournament but managed to advance on the back of contributions from Leon Bailey, Warner Dwayne Brown, and Renaldo Cephas. At the same time, they have Andre Blake, one of the best MLS goalkeepers, who will keep them in any game.

Guadeloupe and Guatemala both frustrated Canada in the 2023 edition of the tournament, but only Guadeloupe have the potential to cause an upset here.

Group D: United States, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia

After the Nations League disappointment, could Christian Pulisic (left) participate in the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup? / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The USMNT had a disappointing showing at the Concacaf Nations League and were given the most challenging draw at the Gold Cup. However, despite previous struggles against Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago, the USMNT should not have any issues navigating their way to the top of the group.

Although having opponents who have proven challenging in the past may not seem great at first glance, it allows head coach Mauricio Pochettino to truly test his players in games of consequence. He is looking to sharpen his tactical identity heading into the knockout stage ahead of next summer’s World Cup.

All time, the USMNT has a 22-4-5 record against Trinidad and Tobago, a 3-2-2 record against tournament guests Saudi Arabia, and a shockingly negative 8-6-9 record against Haiti. Yet, with the pressures on this summer’s Gold Cup, they should be able to prevail against each and advance.

Quarterfinals

Suriname have been one of the fastest rising nations in Concacaf and have found ways to frustrate much more skilled teams / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

QF1: USA (1D) vs. Suriname (2A) Prediction: Suriname def. USMNT

The USMNT will face a frustrating Suriname side and face similar problems as they did against Panama and Mexico. Despite positive performances against testing opponents in the group stage, the USMNT ultimately crashed out of the Gold Cup in the quarterfinals.

QF2: Mexico (1A) vs. Saudi Arabia (2D) Prediction: Mexico def. Saudi Arabia

Riding the high of their Concacaf Nations League win through the group stages, El Tri will have no problem disposing of the guest nation in the Gold Cup and advancing to the final four, a stage that has become standard despite the national team's ups and downs over the years.

QF3: Panama (1C) vs. Curacao (2B) Prediction: Panama def. Curacao

Panama should be able to prevail over Curacao in what will be one of the tighter contests of the quarterfinals. The rise of the former Dutch colony continues to improve at each tournament, yet they are not at a stage where they are likely to make a deep run in a tournament, outside of challenging stronger teams.

QF4: Canada (1B) vs. Jamaica (2C) Prediction: Canada def. Jamaica

Canada’s skill and depth will be tested against Jamaica, but Marsch’s men will ultimately prevail and advance to their second tournament semifinal in as many summers. They finished fourth at the 2024 Copa América, where they fell to Argentina in the semifinal and Uruguay in the bronze medal match.

Semifinals

Adalberto Carrasquilla (right) and Jose Fajardo were two of Panama's standouts against Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League Final. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

SF1: Suriname vs. Canada Prediction: Canada def. Suriname

Canada defeated Suriname in the 2024-25 Nations League without much concern, despite a few chances from the South Americans. Since then, Canada has grown more confident under Marsch and has a deeper pool. It won’t be easy, but Canada should advance to the final.

SF2: Mexico vs. Panama Prediction: Mexico def. Panama

In a 2025 Nations League Final rematch, Mexico will again prevail over Panama and book their spot in the Gold Cup championship clash. Yet, with how Panama are playing, they would have a strong chance of advancing.

Concacaf Gold Cup Final

Mexico vs. Canada Prediction: Mexico def. Canada

After finding consistency through their Nations League win and through their path to the Gold Cup final, El Tri will claim their 10th continental title and fully re-establish themselves as the preeminent force in Concacaf. Meanwhile, Canada will look forward to the 2026 World Cup, failing to win a statement match.