Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal: Supercomputer predicts Premier League top four race | OneFootball

Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal: Supercomputer predicts Premier League top four race

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Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the data and worked out the probabilities for every outcome in the upcoming Premier League.

With the season opener just around the corner, the hype is becoming more and more real as fans gear up for the return of domestic football in England’s top-flight.

As such, it’s always fascinating when around this time, data savvy analysts and their trusty steed the ‘supercomputer’ combine to work out what each club’s chances are at attaining their objectives.

We’ve compiled what Opta’s findings were below with a specific focus on the top four race, although we’ll make sure to touch briefly on who’s been tipped up to be Premier League champions also, as well as the favourites for relegation.

The hunt for Champions League football

According to Opta, Manchester City and Liverpool are all but certainties for the top four with their overall probabilities standing at 99.3% and 99.28% respectively.

In third position, we have Antonio Conte’s Tottenham with a 70.07% chance. That seems like a pretty fair assessment given the strides they’ve made in the transfer market this summer, as well as the obvious Conte factor.

The one doubt you could potentially place on Spurs is that they’ll need to adapt to difficulties of mid-week Champions League football once again. All things considered, though, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Chelsea are the most likely team to sweep the fourth and final qualification spot thanks to their 62.46% probability.

After their shoddy end to last season and the potential unrest fans have been detecting in Thomas Tuchel, we find that number much more arguable – especially given the pre-season form of Arsenal.

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However despite the Gunners flying high right now, it’s in fact Man Utd’s 25.56% chance that pips their 22% probability of making it back into the European big-time.

One final club we’ll touch on is Newcastle, who this season continue their quest up the league as they bid to become a dominant force again.

The Magpies have been allocated a 5.03% chance of Champions League football, piping West Ham by a whisker.

View the full list of top four probabilities:

Manchester City – 99.33% Liverpool – 99.28% Tottenham – 70.07% Chelsea – 62.46% Man Utd – 25.56% Arsenal – 22% Newcastle – 5.03% West Ham – 4.93% Leicester – 4.12% Brighton – 2.09% Aston Villa – 2.07%

Other notable outcomes

When it comes to the Premier League title race, Opta have concluded that Liverpool have a marginally better chance than City to secure domestic bragging rights.

The Reds’ 49.72% chance trumps City’s 47.03% probability. Aside from the big two, no club has a higher probability than 2%.

When it comes to relegation, well, there’s not too many surprises there.

The three promoted clubs are favourites to go straight back down, with Bournemouth leading the way with a 45.03% chance.

From the traditional Premier League mainstays, the Saints lead the way with a 34.23% likelihood of the drop.

Meanwhile Everton hold a 15.06% chance of playing Championship football in 2023/2024.

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