Bournemouth v Newcastle: Impose Murphy's law at 4/1 | OneFootball

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Bournemouth v NewcastleSunday 25 August, 14:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

It's a tricky time of year for football betting.

There's little current form to go on - we're only on matchday two of the Premier League season - so there's the juggle of weighing up what has changed against how things panned out in the last campaign.

Certainly last week we learned little about Newcastle 's 2024/25 version.

They played with 10 men for the majority of their home game with Southampton, were subsequently out-shot 19-3, had just 22% possession but scrambled to a 1-0 victory thanks to a goalkeeping howler.

As for Bournemouth, they scored late on at Nottingham Forest to earn a point, although the hosts could arguably have been out of sight by then had they taken their chances.

The Cherries have now won just two of their last nine Premier League games, while last season saw them struggle against the top seven, winning only one of those 14 matches - although it was at home to Newcastle.

Goals expected on south coast

The Magpies really struggled on the road last term, losing 11 of 19 and conceding multiple goals in 13 of them. Fixing that, to some extent, will be a priority for Eddie Howe as he prepares to return to his former club but he'll be missing key personnel in defence with the injured Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles now joined on the sidelines by Fabian Schar following last week's red card.

Emil Krafth looks set to step in as a makeshift centre-back but the hosts should fancy their chances of scoring against Newcastle for the 12th game in a row.

I do fancy goals here - 74% of Newcastle's away games landed the over 2.5 bet last season, while there were a whopping 76 goals scored in their 19 such matches, an average of exactly four.

As for Bournemouth, they conceded 67 in their 38 games in total - of the teams who stayed up, only West Ham let in more.

However, after what was a record-breaking campaign for goals, the markets are clued up with over 2.5 only 1/2 and both teams to score a fraction shorter.

Murphy offers good value

Instead, the value for me lies in the anytime goalscorer market where Jacob Murphy looks the bet at 4/1 on the Sportsbook.

Alexander Isak is the man who grabs all the attention for the men in black and white these days but Murphy has been smashing it up in pre-season, scoring five goals in five appearances and finding the net in four of those matches.

Playing on the right-hand side of Newcastle's forward line, Murphy was rather unlucky last week when he was the man hauled off following Schar's dismissal as Howe plugged the hole in his defence.

He'll surely get more than half an hour this week and a man who averaged 2.27 shots per game last season - despite playing some games as a full-back - looks a juicy price, playing for a team who are the 2.3 favourites to win.

For the record, Bournemouth are at 3.15 on the Exchange.

How to use your free Bet Builder

Once again, Betfair are offering a free Bet Builder on the Premier League this weekend, so it's worth looking at potential props options for that - especially after we suggested a 10/1 winner in this week's equivalent preview!

I'll start by mentioning Marcos Senesi in the player card market - 11/4 looks decent about the centre-back who had a league-high 13 cards last season, including 12 in his 26 starts. We've also got one of last season's top-carding referees in David Coote, who averaged over five per game in 2023/24.

The problem is Senesi may not start - he suffered a head injury in pre-season and wasn't ready for last weekend's game at Forest. It remains to be seen whether he returns here or not.

With that in mind, I'm after alternative selections and will start by backing Lewis Hall for 1+ foul.

The Newcastle left-back committed two last weekend and will likely be up against the lively Dango Ouattara here, a player fouled in 10 of his last 12 starts.

Staying in the fouls markets, let's also back Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 3+ times.

The Brazilian was the king at drawing fouls last season - no Premier League player was fouled more - and he averaged well over three per game.

The 3+ bet has landed in five of his last seven games - he drew six last weekend - and 14 of his last 20.

Of those refs who took charge of four or more games last season, Coote was the best for fouls awarded, averaging 24.69 - more than 2.5 above the league average.

In the shots markets, as well as backing Murphy for 2+, as discussed above, I'm going for Milos Kerkez for 1+ shot.

The Bournemouth left-back has managed 14 shots in his last 11 starts. Filter things down to home appearances and his recent makes-ups are 4-1-0-1-3-3.

Opta fact

Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has never beaten former club Bournemouth in the Premier League in four attempts (D3 L1). The Cherries are one of only three sides Howe has faced but failed to defeat, along with Luton (D1 L1) and Man City (D1 L15).