Benfica v Atletico Madrid: Take big odds on in-form rivals sharing the spoils

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·2 October 2024

Benfica v Atletico Madrid: Take big odds on in-form rivals sharing the spoils

UEFA Champions League

Antoine Griezmann has already been on target in the competition this season

OneFootball Videos

James Eastham expects a close encounter in Lisbon on Wednesday night as Diego Simeone's Atletico travel to Benfica following Sunday night's last gasp draw with Real...

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Benfica vs Atletico MadridWed 2 Oct, 20:00Live on TNT Sports 7

This looks like being one of the week's most evenly matched Champions League fixtures between two in-form teams. Benfica and Atletico Madrid both have strong arguments in their favour as they go head-to-head at Estadio da Luz on Wednesday night.

Since their early-season switch of manager Benfica have been in terrific form under new boss Bruno Lage. The ex-Wolves man has overseen a change in fortunes since being appointed last month, replacing the sacked Roger Schmidt.

Benfica are on a run of four straight wins in all competitions, including their 2-1 triumph at Red Star Belgrade on Champions League matchday one. They head into this game on the back of a 5-1 home win over Gil Vicente last weekend, which took their tally to 16 goals scored in four games with Lage in charge.

But Benfica won't have things all their own way. Atletico Madrid's impressive form means the visitors are likely to be equally upbeat. Unbeaten in nine games (W5-D4-L0) in all competitions in 2024-25, Diego Simeone's players also triumphed on matchday one in this competition, securing a 2-1 victory at home to Red Bull Leipzig. And, despite leaving it late, they were also able to obtain an injury-time draw (1-1) at home to city rivals Real Madrid last weekend.

So what will give? Maybe nothing. Benfica are 3.1 to win, with Atletico Madrid 2.55. We'd ignore those two and instead back The Draw at 3.5. As the outsider of three in the Match Odds market, The Draw looks the value pick in a game in which, on paper, there seems to be little to separate these two sides.

The situation's less clear-cut when it comes to predicting how many goals there will be. Benfica may be high-scoring under Lage, but Atletico Madrid will provide a defensive robustness and know-how that Benfica have yet to come up against this season.

And, while the goals count may often have been higher than many people expected under Simeone last season, Atletico Madrid's recent games have featured few goals: 1-1 (home) vs Real Madrid (Sep 29), 1-0 (away) vs Celta Vigo (Sep 26), 1-1 (away) vs Rayo Vallecano (Sep 22).

Under 2.5 Goals is available at 1.95, while Overs is 2.00. At those odds, we lean slightly towards Unders but prefer to leave this market alone. In the Both teams to Score? market, Yes is 1.75 and No is 2.24. We prefer to leave this market alone as well.

Griezmann the main man

Following the shock announcement that he was retiring from international football that he made on Monday morning, Antoine Griezmann will be the focus of much attention. Now that his France career is over, will the highly-decorated midfielder-cum-striker be more motivated than ever to win important trophies with Atletico Madrid this season? You'd imagine so.

Freed from the potentially draining impact of international gatherings later this month and next month, Griezmann can now concentrate all his efforts on doing well in club colours - and it would be just like him to quietly yet effectively make that point right away.

On the Sportsbook, Griezmann - who scored in Atletico Madrid's matchday one win over Red Bull Leipzig - is 11/4 in both the Player To Score market and Player Anytime Assist market, and 7/5 To Score Or Assist. Our preferred selection is to back him in Player Shots on Target 1 or More market. He's 8/11 to cash here, and we're willing to support him at those odds.