Baggies hoping for miracle finish to the season

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·11 April 2025

Baggies hoping for miracle finish to the season

West Bromwich Albion v Watford; The Hawthorns, Saturday 12th April 2025, 3pm

Albion welcome Watford to the Hawthorns in what is very much a “must-win” game if they are to maintain any hopes of securing a top six spot. Those hopes were largely dashed at Ashton Gate on Tuesday evening, but this season’s Championship has been so unpredictable that you cannot rule anything out just yet. The odds are, however, that the Baggies need to win at least four of their remaining five games, if not all of them, and let’s not forget that they have not recorded back-to-back victories since September.

The game at Bristol City was a mix between familiar disappointments and signs of what could have been. In the 25 minutes or so between Mowatt’s equaliser and Molumby’s red card, Albion were thoroughly dominant playing exciting football and appeared to be the only team that were capably of winning the game. It contrasted so utterly with the first half performance that it was difficult to believe it was the same team; of course, it wasn’t, with Mowbray having made a quadruple substitution to bring on Dike, Diakité, Fellows and Bany who all made the team better.

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The head coach had finally bowed to pressure, or perhaps made his own decision, to replace struggling ‘keeper Joe Wildsmith with Josh Griffiths, but had kept faith with Adam Armstrong and surprisingly named Isaac Price in the starting line-up despite expectations that he may not play again this season. While it looked as if Price was playing as a false nine, after the match, Mowbray explained that it was two wide forwards with Price at the tip a diamond midfield, a formation he had previously employed against a back three with success. It evidently didn’t work on this occasion and he had switched Armstrong to a more central role at half time before replacing him with Dike.

Mowbray has come in for some intense criticism from some quarters and some of it is justified and, while I do not think he will be sacked in the summer and nor do I think he should be, he has made some selection errors that need to be called out. In my opinion, he has persisted with Armstrong for far too long when it has been clear he isn’t working with the players around him. On Tuesday, the first half formation was a clear mistake and the decision to pick John Swift for that match was bizarre – Swift is undoubtedly a talented player, as was shown by the free kick at Burnley last month, but he too often puts in anonymous performances as he did at Ashton Gate.

I would also question the decision to play Grant, particularly in that formation. Whether by design or not, he was incredibly isolated and just doesn’t have the ability to beat a man that Johnston does and, consequently offered little. Obviously, there may be fitness factors of which we are unaware, but Grant just did not perform at Bristol.

While the first half at Bristol was pretty dreadful, it’s important to remember that Albion have been playing well, notwithstanding the two previous defeats, but have not been able to put the ball in the back of the net. Those 20 minutes in the second half on Tuesday night was as dangerous as Albion have looked for some time and there will be obvious clamours for the four substitutes to start on Saturday.

Unfortunately, that may not be possible. Ousmane Diakité and Tammer Bany are both struggling with injuries and may not be available for selection, but it is hoped that Torbjørn Heggem will be fit enough to return the side. For Daryl Dike, it should not be forgotten that he has not yet started a match since his return from a very lengthy injury lay off, but having completed back-to-back 30 minute substitute appearances, he must be close to proving his fitness to start.

Watford’s season has some parallels with Albion’s in that they have struggled to produce consistent results albeit the hornets have tended to win or lose rather than draw. They endured a difficult run after Christmas as they picked up just five points from ten games but, such are the vagaries of this season’s Championship, they are now just a point behind Albion despite only average form since then.

Georgian international, Giorgi Chakvetadze, is arguably Watford’s star player although his record of only two goals and six assists suggests a lack of end product. Top scorer is Ivorian Vakoun Bayo with ten – he scored both goals in the Hornets’ 2-1 win over Albion in December but has only scored once since and has struggled to get in the starting eleven since receiving a straight red against Norwich in February. Central midfielder, Edo Kayembe, is a Congolese international teammate of Grady Diangana and has regularly chipped in with goals this season. He is also one of only two players, with defender Mattie Pollock, to have featured in every league game for Watford this season.

Watford’s form on the road is even worse than Albion’s – both sides have won just four away from home but Watford have only picked up five draws putting them 16th in the away table. They have won more recently than the Baggies, however, recording a surprise 1-0 win at Middlesbrough in February but were beaten at struggling Oxford United in March and, like Albion, lost at Ashton Gate in their last away game.

Five successive wins will not guarantee a top six spot, but it is more than likely to. Albion did win five in a row in the early days of Carlos Corberán’s tenure and won six in a row under both Slaven Bilić and Gary Megson. The last time a Baggies side won the last five of a league season was in 1962 when Archie Macaulay’s team rose from sixteenth to seventh with five straight wins ending in a 7-1 win over Blackpool on the final day. Back in 1930, Albion won the last seven of a second division campaign to rise from 13th to 6th, although without the play-offs, they had to wait until the following season to win promotion.

That was a dramatic turnaround in form with Albion having lost four of the previous six games – exactly what Tony Mowbray’s team need this season. Anything can happen and the players are confident if you believe what Mowbray said in his interview on Thursday We can but hope.

History

Albion haven’t beaten Watford since December 2016 when goals from Jonny Evans, Chris Brunt and Matt Phillips earned Tony Pulis’s team a 3-1 victory at the Hawthorns. Since then, there have been four draws and four Watford victories with all three of the subsequent meetings in West Bromwich finishing all square.

The Baggies haven’t kept a clean sheet against the Hornets since the goalless draw at Vicarage Road in August 2015 which I can attest was an utterly forgettable game. Albion’s last shutout at the Hawthorns against the Watford was the immeasurably more memorable 5-0 thrashing of Malky Mackay’s team in October 2019 when Jonas Olsson, Graham Dorrans, Luke Moor,e Gianni Zuiverloon and Simon Cox were all on target for Roberto di Matteo’s team. That is, unsurprisingly, Albion’s biggest ever win over Watford.

Watford have only managed to leave the Hawthorns with a victory on four occasions, most recently a 1-0 win in April 2016 when former Baggie Ben Watson scored the only goal of the game. Before that, you have to go back to February 1995 for another 1-0 win for the Hornets, that time thanks to a Craig Ramage penalty in the early days of Alan Buckley’s tenure at the Hawthorns.

Watford have only ever once won by more than a single goal at the Hawthorns, and that was in their first ever league visit in April 1983. Graham Taylor’s team that finished runners-up to Liverpool in the title race took a 3-0 lead through John Barnes, Nigel Callaghan and Jon Lohman before Martin Jol reduced the arrears for the hosts and made the final score 1-3.