Austria v Turkey: Back goals to flow in potential thriller

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·7 February 2024

Austria v Turkey: Back goals to flow in potential thriller

Euro 2024

Manager Ralf Rangnick has made Austria gloriously entertaining to watch

OneFootball Videos

James Eastham assesses the odds and picks out the smart bets ahead of this eagerly-awaited clash of tournament dark horses on Tuesday evening...

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Austria v TurkeyTuesday 1 July, 20:00

Austria worthy favourites

Austria and Turkey are tournament dark horses and ought to serve up an entertaining affair on Tuesday evening. It's the last of the eight Last 16 ties to be played but may end up being one of the most memorable.

Ralf Rangnick's Austria have impressed with the speed and energy of their attacks, while Turkey emerged from a potentially tricky group ahead of Georgia and Czech Republic. Based on how the two sides have played so far it's no surprise Austria are the clear favourites to win. Rangnick's players are 2.04 to claim victory in 90 minutes, while Turkey are 4.5 and the Draw is 3.4.

The big odds on Turkey will draw some people in, but they look more flawed than Austria. Defensively Turkey were found wanting at times in the group stage, and Austria look capable of exploiting that, from all sorts of angles. Austria deserve their favourites tag, although their price looks about right. For that reason, our advice would be to leave the Match Odds market alone.

Goals should flow

We're underlining Turkey's defensive vulnerabilities, but Austria are hardly watertight in defence, either. They conceded in all three of their group games, although to some degree this appears hard-wired into their tactical approach: Rangnick seems willing to sacrifice some defensive solidity in exchange for the type of attacking intensity that has delighted fans. After all, it's hard to focus solely on shutting out the opposition over 90 minutes when you encourage five, six, and even seven players to get forward in attack when opportunities to hurt the opposition open up in front of you.

This Austria is built to win games 3-1 or 3-2 - as they did in the group phase, versus Poland and Netherlands respectively - rather than nick 1-0 victories. Trends from the group phase don't always carry over into the knockout rounds, but it's hard to see how or why Austria would pivot to a dramatically different style.

Given we're expecting a typically positive approach from Austria and an open game in general, the goals markets have the most appeal. 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market and Over 2.5 Goals are both worth considering at 1.85 and 2.00 respectively. As well as the style of the two sides persuading us to lean towards these options, the stats from the group phase would be in your favour with both of these selections.

Both teams scored in two of Austria's three group games, with the same two games (3-1 vs Poland and 3-2 vs Netherlands) also having Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams scored in two of Turkey's three group games, with all three of their group games featuring three or more goals. Based on those group-phase outcomes, the odds on 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market and Over 2.5 Goals

Turkey the corners kings

Looking through some of the other stats that the group phase produced, one of the other areas of the game deserving your attention would be the Corners markets. The trends suggest that Turkey are likely to win more corners than Austria over the 90 minutes, yet this is something that the markets appear to have overlooked.

Across their three group matches, Austria won 11 corners and lost 11 corners. They won their Corners Match Bet vs France in their opening fixture, but the lost to both Poland and Netherlands. In contrast, Turkey won 21 corners across their three group games, conceding just nine. They drew on a Corners Match Bet with Georgia, before comprehensively beating Portugal and Czech Republic in their next two fixtures.

Despite that clear statistical pattern, Austria are the short-priced favourites in the Corners Match Bet market: they're 8/13 to win the most corners, with Turkey 17/10 and Draw 6/1. We would suggest you split your stakes across Turkey and Draw, so you'll make a profit in the event of one of these outcomes occurring.