Atalanta v Sturm Graz: Base Bet Builder on Retegui | OneFootball

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Mateo Retegui is averaging a goal every 76 minutes in Serie A this season

Our football props column looks at Tuesday's Atalanta v Sturm Graz clash in the Champions League and is siding with a proven goalscorer.

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Atalanta v Sturm GrazTuesday 21 January, 17:45Live on TNT Sports 2

I've pored over the markets for this match for way longer than I should have and, frankly, I'm still struggling to find a decent angle.

I'm therefore going down the 'obvious' route. I'm afraid.

Leg 1: Mateo Retegui to score

Atalanta boast Serie A's top scorer Mateo Retegui in their ranks and he should be a threat to a side who have lost five out of six in the Champions League so far, scoring only four goals.

They are five points off 24th in the standings with two games to play so this is must-win for them and that should play into Atalanta's hands - and Retegui's.

Sturm have only conceded nine goals in their six games in this competition but that need to come out has to make them more vulnerable, as does the injury to Scottish right-back Max Johnston.

Their hosts are on 11 points, four clear of 25th, so they know victory here would guarantee them a place in the knockout stage, while it would also keep them in the hunt for a top-eight finish, which comes with the advantage of a bye straight into the last 16.

The problem for Atalanta is they are winless in five games since Christmas. That said, the opposition has been tough - the weekend brought a 3-2 home defeat to Serie A leaders Napoli, while they've also faced fellow top-five members Lazio, Inter and Juventus in that run.

This looks the ideal opportunity to return to winning ways with their Austrian foes currently in the middle of their winter break - this will be their first competitive match in a month.

Recent friendlies haven't gone particularly well with just one of four won, while they've lost three of their six in this competition without scoring.

Leg 2: Atalanta to lead at half time

I did consider Atalanta winning 'to nil' but they don't have the greatest defensive record.

Their strength has long been going forward and they have netted 46 goals in 21 league games this season, second only to Inter in Serie A.

I'll therefore side with star man Retegui to get in on the act, a player who has netted a goal every 76 minutes he's played in Serie A this season, while also backing Atalanta to be leading at half time.

In their 17 victories this season, that's occurred 11 times, and it would be no surprise for the visitors to make a sluggish start given their lack of competitive action of late.

Leg 3: A goal scored in both halves

6/4.

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Recommended bets

Back Mateo Retegui to score, Atalanta to be leading at half time and a goal to be scored in both halves @ around 6/4

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 189pts Returned: 204.65pts 2024/25 P/L: +15.65pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts