Analysis: Optimism grows on Nico Williams deal at Barcelona, but perhaps it should not | OneFootball

Nobody is really debating the fact that Nico Williams would be a very good signing for just about anyone in the world. The 22-year-old showed at Euro 2024 what he had been suggesting for the 2023-24 season as he flew down the line for Ernesto Valverde, that he was a handful for any defence.

The Basque winger has been the subject of a rather public tug of war between Barcelona and Athletic Club this summer. After returning to training earlier this week, Athletic Club are confident that he will remain at the club, despite him not rejecting the Catalan giants. Sport, also say that optimism is growing at Barcelona over the deal, and there is a ‘high chance’ he signs for them.

Williams decision aside, the arrival of Dani Olmo does change, or at least should, change things from a Barcelona perspective. There is a theory that if Williams is signed, then some of their other stars that Barcelona wouldn’t mind moving on, such as Raphinha and Ilkay Gundogan, perhaps even Ferran Torres, will see the writing on the wall, and collect their things.

Evidence over the past few years would suggest that is absolutely not the case. If by some miracle of financial engineering Barcelona could register Williams before major sales arrived, then it would leave them either with a huge pile of resources in one area, or unregistering Raphinha perhaps, and eating the around €20m he costs the club every season.

If Williams were also to arrive, and Hansi Flick sticks with the fairly defined 4-2-3-1 shape he has been using, the three roles behind Robert Lewandowski would be disputed between a total of nine players: Ilkay Gundogan, Fermin Lopez, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati, Raphinha and Olmo. It’s true that Gundogan or Pedri could be used further back, but either way, a lot talent would be left on the bench.

Perhaps the opportunity cost of signing Williams makes it worthwhile, but is the gap so large between Williams that large with the likes of Pedri, Lopez or even Raphinha that it is worth stretching the finances that bit wider, to the tune of €62m, before considering his salary? It’s certainly inconsistent with the rest of the side. Williams could potentially lift the ceiling at Barcelona a couple of years down the line, but will not do so dramatically in the next year or two, compared to Olmo, or if he were used centrally, Raphinha.

Meanwhile Barcelona appear to be hoping that Frenkie de Jong, Marc Casado or Marc Bernal can be a difference-maker at the base of midfield. That Alejandro Balde reminds us of his debut season rather than his second. That 35-year-old Robert Lewandowski does the same. The midfield case seems the most glaring. If Barcelona can trust academy youngsters to fulfil their need in the midfield, it would mark an era shift for the club, but it’s significant pressure to place on Casado, who the club were considering selling in May, and Bernal, who has never played a Liga match before.

Barcelona don’t necessarily have the star power all over the pitch to make the comparison sound, but perhaps that makes it all the more pertinent, that the criticism that was always thrown at Real Madrid during their Galactico era was always signing star players over key needs to balance out the side. Before Euro 2024, Williams was not considered an absolute necessity, but ultimately all signs suggest that he might be great player for Barcelona. Should they be able to shift Raphinha, Ansu Fati, Torres and maybe even Pedri or Lopez, it would make sense too. If they don’t, there seems a reasonable chance that it does not help them win enough football matches to justify his signing.