All about the next game: St. Pauli at home

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Rund um den Brustring

·21 December 2024

All about the next game: St. Pauli at home

Against St. Pauli, VfB Stuttgart aims to crown their successful 2024 calendar year with a victory. The reigning Second Division champions arrive with a strong defense and a lackluster offense.

2024 had many highs and lows for VfB. The highs were almost always athletic, while the lows were of a club and sports-political nature. While we celebrated a 5–2 win over Leipzig on the pitch, protests against the DFL took place off it. While Frankfurt’s SGE was dismantled by Deniz Undav in 37 minutes, fans protested against Claus Vogt. This year will undoubtedly remain special in memory. But before we can celebrate Christmas and New Year’s Eve, we first have to face St. Pauli.

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The promoted team from Hamburg has more or less found their rhythm in recent weeks. Since Matchday 11, they’ve been consistently sitting in 15th place, the last non-relegation spot. Incidentally, the Kiezkickers’ coach is an old acquaintance: Alexander Blessin was born in Bad Cannstatt and wore the jersey with the Brustring nine times between 1997 and 1999. Under his leadership, St. Pauli boasts one of the best defenses and one of the weakest offenses in the league. Essentially, the opposite of VfB.

That’s not to say our defense is the weakest in the Bundesliga or anything, but the regular slip-ups and wobbles are concerning. Especially since Nübel didn’t look good during Heidenheim’s goal either. However, I also want to hold the rest of the team accountable. If it’s not Nübel, we make careless errors in build-up play, like the ones against Hoffenheim or Millot’s mistake last Sunday.

I hope we can iron out these mistakes over the winter, and that Nübel regains the confidence he had last season. At the same time, it must be said that things are looking much better offensively. Since the loss in Belgrade, VfB hasn’t lost a game. In four of the last five matches, we secured all three points and scored at least three goals in each. Granted, the opponents weren’t the crème de la crème, but Heidenheim, Bern, and Union are far from pushovers.

One reason for this offensive resurgence is Nick Woltemade. In the last three competitive matches he played, he scored four goals. Not only is he great at finishing, but he’s also very skilled with the ball and shines as a playmaker. 2025 could be his breakout year.

Personnel Situation

Joining the long-term absentees are Atakan Karazor (illness) and Justin Diehl (muscle injury). While the Turkish international gets a well-deserved break, it’s unfortunate for Justin Diehl. It felt like he was slowly hitting his stride. However, the former Cologne player should be fit again for the start of the new year.

Possible Starting Lineup

Keitel gets rewarded for his development and comes in for Karazor. I’d be excited to see Al-Dakhil start, but he’s likely lacking fitness. Otherwise, everything stays the same.

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart will finish the year with either 62, 63, or 65 points. With a win, VfB would complete their best calendar year since 2003. A loss would mean matching 2010’s total, though we played one more game back then.

FCSP is a welcome opponent for VfB Stuttgart. In 16 Bundesliga encounters, VfB has secured 10 wins, drawn 4 times, and lost only twice. At home in the Neckarstadion, St. Pauli has never won. Whether Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, or DFB-Pokal, VfB has won every home game against them except for one.

As mentioned above, St. Pauli is very weak offensively. With 14 xG, they are last in the table. However, they shouldn’t be underestimated, as they managed to beat Freiburg, the fifth-placed team, 0–3 away and handed Freiburg their only home loss. St. Pauli runs a lot and averages very little possession, typical traits for a promoted team.

Conclusion

To close out the year, a manageable opponent awaits. I’m not expecting a high-quality match but rather a game of patience against a defensively strong team. My prediction is a narrow but well-deserved 1–0 home win!