2025 Season Preview: Machida Zelvia | OneFootball

Machida Zelvia's meteoric rise from J2 promotion to a stunning third-place finish in J1 last season defied all expectations. Now the question looms: can this defensive powerhouse consolidate their position among Japan's elite or will the sophomore slump strike?

Building on unexpected success

Machida Zelvia's debut J1 campaign was nothing short of remarkable. Finishing third as a newly-promoted side, they established themselves as the league's defensive benchmark, conceding fewer goals than any other team. The center-back partnership of Ibrahim Drešević and Gen Shoji formed the foundation of coach Go Kuroda's pragmatic approach, embodying his philosophy of "not letting the opponent score."

In attack, South Korean striker Oh Se-Hun emerged as the focal point, netting 8 goals while creating space for teammates Takuma Nishimura and Yuki Soma. Strategic additions like Mitchell Duke provided valuable depth, while their home form at GION Stadium proved formidable with signature victories over FC Tokyo and Kyoto Sanga.

The club's financial health mirrored their on-field success, with revenues jumping from ¥2 billion in 2023 to approximately ¥3.5 billion last year. Average attendance surged to 17,610, setting a new club record despite venue limitations.

Most impressively, Machida remained in title contention until the final matchday, a remarkable achievement for a club in their first top-flight season. Oh Se-Hun's performances even earned him a debut with the South Korean national team, bringing additional prestige to the club.

However, their fairytale season wasn't without flaws. A concerning lack of homegrown talent saw their academy representation dwindle throughout the campaign, with key departures leaving them without any homegrown players by season's end. Against elite opposition, Machida often came up short, suffering notable defeats to Kashima Antlers (3-1) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2-0).

A pronounced midseason slump saw them win just once in six matches from Round 32 onwards, coinciding with injuries to key players. Despite their defensive reputation, aerial vulnerabilities were exposed in matches like the 1-4 defeat to Kawasaki Frontale, where set-pieces became their undoing.

Over-reliance on Oh Se-Hun became problematic when he was tightly marked or suspended, while limited squad depth was exposed during injury crises. Cup competitions proved disappointing, with an early Emperor's Cup exit to university side Tsukuba particularly embarrassing.

For the 2025 campaign, continuity prevails in the dugout with Kuroda retained after last season's success. Gen Shoji continues as captain, with Hokuto Shimoda remaining as vice-captain alongside a new addition to the leadership group.

As Machida prepares for their sophomore J1 season, the challenge is clear: build on last year's defensive solidity while addressing the offensive limitations and squad depth issues that prevented them from achieving even greater heights.

Winter transfer window overhaul

Machida's front office orchestrated a dramatic squad transformation during the winter transfer window, with a staggering 17 arrivals and 19 departures reshaping the team that exceeded expectations last season. This wholesale renovation suggests a strategic pivot rather than minor tweaks to an already successful formula.

Machida has recruited extensively across all positions. Their defensive reinforcements include the experienced Ryuho Kikuchi from Vissel Kobe and Daihachi Okamura from Consadole Sapporo, while Kosei Tani returns between the posts from Gamba Osaka. The midfield has been bolstered by Hiroyuki Mae from Avispa Fukuoka and Ryohei Shirasaki from Shimizu S-Pulse, providing both defensive stability and creative options.

Perhaps most intriguingly, Takuma Nishimura arrives from Yokohama F. Marinos to strengthen the attacking department, while the summer acquisition of Yuta Hirakawa from English side Bristol City represents a rare international transfer for the club.

The sheer volume of transactions suggests a comprehensive rebuild rather than fine-tuning. With so many new faces, coach Kuroda faces the challenge of quickly forging team chemistry while maintaining the defensive solidity that defined last season's success.

In their likely 4-2-3-1 formation, the spine of Tani in goal, Kikuchi in defense, Mae anchoring midfield, and Nishimura in the attacking third will be crucial to maintaining stability amidst such wholesale changes. The defensive midfield partnership of Mae and Ken Higuchi should provide protection for the backline, while Shirasaki's creativity will be vital in supplying ammunition for the forwards.

This transfer strategy represents a significant gamble. While the incoming players bring quality and experience from established J1 clubs, the loss of key contributors from last season's overachieving squad creates uncertainty. Machida's ability to integrate these new signings quickly will determine whether they can build upon last season's unexpected success or struggle with the dreaded second-season syndrome.

Challenges ahead for Machida's sophomore season

Despite the influx of talent, Machida's remodeled squad isn't without its vulnerabilities. The most glaring concern is the absence of a proven, consistent goalscorer to replace Oh Se-Hun's contribution, in the event of injury. While Takuma Nishimura brings creativity and attacking threat, the responsibility for converting chances remains somewhat distributed rather than concentrated in a reliable finisher.

The sheer volume of winter transfers creates inevitable questions about squad cohesion. With so many new faces, establishing the defensive organization that defined last season's success will require time and patience. The full-back positions appear particularly thin compared to the center-back depth, potentially exposing vulnerabilities against teams with dangerous wide players.

Machida's creative burden falls heavily on midfielders like Shirasaki and Nishimura. Should either suffer injury or loss of form, the team could struggle to break down organized defenses. Additionally, beyond Hirakawa's stint at Bristol City, the squad lacks significant international experience, which might prove limiting in high-pressure situations.

The 2025 campaign has already begun with mixed fortunes. After opening with a narrow 1-2 home defeat to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Machida bounced back impressively with a 1-0 victory over FC Tokyo in the Tokyo Derby, with Nishimura proving his worth by scoring the decisive goal. Their upcoming clash with Tokyo Verdy represents another early test in what locals call the "Tokyo Classic."

Looking ahead, the fixture list presents several defining moments. The April home games against powerhouses Kawasaki Frontale and Urawa Reds (the latter at the National Stadium) will measure Machida's progress, while the August trip to defending champions Yokohama F. Marinos could be particularly revealing. The season concludes with a potentially crucial final day fixture at Kashiwa Reysol on December 6.

For Machida to maintain last season's impressive trajectory, defensive stalwarts Gen Shoji and Ibrahim Drešević must quickly establish understanding with their new teammates. The midfield partnership of Mae and Shirasaki will be crucial in controlling games, while Nishimura and Soma need to provide consistent attacking threat.

Machida Zelvia's remarkable rise from J2 to J1 contenders captured imaginations last season, but their wholesale squad renovation represents a significant gamble. While the influx of established J1 talent suggests ambition, the loss of key contributors and lack of a proven goalscorer creates uncertainty. Coach Kuroda's ability to forge defensive cohesion among so many new faces will determine whether they can build on last year's foundation or suffer the sophomore slump that often afflicts overachieving promoted sides.

Prediction: Machida's defensive DNA will prevent any dramatic collapse, but the lack of a clinical striker and integration challenges will see them settle for a respectable 8th place finish – solid if unspectacular consolidation in their second J1 season.