2024-25 Ligue 1 Season Predictions: Back Marseille and Rennes to finish Top Four | OneFootball

French Ligue 1

Marseille look set to shine under new manager Roberto De Zerbi

After making a profit on Ligue 1 in each of the last four seasons, James Eastham looks ahead to the new French top flight campaign, and picks out the smartest bets before the action gets under way...

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Ligue 1 Outright Winner: No value in backing PSG

Has the Ligue 1 title race been thrown wide-open by the high-profile departure of Kylian Mbappe for his new life at Real Madrid? Well, no - not quite. With a few days still to go before the new season kicks-off, champions PSG look seriously short of quality in front of goal now that the France superstar that has acted as their talisman for so many seasons has sough pastures now, but this situation is not expected to last.

PSG's transfer supremos are working hard to ensure that at least one and possibly two new superstar strikers arrives before the window closes, meaning that the PSG front line - which already includes Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Goncalo Ramos and Randal Kolo Muani, let's not forget - is likely to look very different come September.

That said, the 1/4 odds on PSG successfully defending their title have very little appeal. The club from the French capital may have been a shorter price in summers gone by - in the days when Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappe were all on their books, PSG used to be around 1/10 to claim the prize - but this season's more attractive ante-post price still isn't doing enough to pull us in.

No matter who PSG sign to play as the centre-forward, there's a fair chance the team will be weaker because - let's face it - whoever comes in won't be Mbappe. And the chasing pack have worked hard to strengthen, in the hope of giving all Ligue 1 followers the genuine title race we crave.

The most likely challengers are Marseille. L'OM are 10/1 second favourites to win the title after they pulled off one of the managerial coups of the summer by persuading Roberto De Zerbi to become their boss. The former Brighton manager has spent the summer remoulding the side into a 4-2-3-1 that looks capable of being brilliantly effective this season.

A host of new faces - including goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli (signed from Ajax), centre-back Lilian Brassier (Brest), midfielders Pierre-Emile Hojberg (Tottenham) and Ismael Kone (Watford), and forwards Mason Greenwood (Manchester Utd), and Valentin Carboni (Inter) - will wear the colours this season. Also in Marseille's favour is the fact they're not in European competition, so they can focus solely on domestic matters.

Top Four: Marseille your smart selection

Rather than backing Marseille as long shots in the outright market, however, it makes sense to back them in some of the other ante-post markets available at Betfair. The Winner Without Paris St-G and the Top 4 Finish markets are both available, and both of them deserve your attention.

At 4/1, the new-look Marseille are worth considering in the Winner Without Paris St-G market. In recent seasons, however, it's been notoriously difficult to predict who will finish second in this division: Lens were surprise runners-up in 2022-23, for example. So instead, we prefer Marseille's odds of 10/11 in the Top 4 Finish market.

With the manager they have, the players at his disposal, and the fact they don't have the draining impact of European football to deal with, it would be a disastrous season were l'OM to miss out on a top-four spot. Make this your main ante-post pick.

Top Four: Look out for Lyon and Rennes

Monaco will be close behind. Runners-up last season, they ought to be just as strong again. Although they have the challenge of the Champions League to deal with this season as well, they have the quality, squad depth and experience to handle playing on two fronts. They're 9/2 in the Winner Without Paris St-G market and 5/4 in the Top 4 Finish market.

A better-value selection would be Lyon. Like Monaco, they enjoyed a tremendous second-half of 2024-25 to climb the table, in their case eventually finishing sixth. Under impressive manager Pierre Sage - a total unknown when he took over last November, who has worked miracles since - Lyon should be stronger, too: Moussa Niakhate has joined from Nottingham Forest to improve their defence, while the arrival of Georgia's Euro 2024 star striker Georges Mikhautadze ought to relieve some of the pressure on the excellent if overworked Alexandre Lacazette to score some goals. Lyon are 15/2 in the Winner Without Paris St-G market and 2/1 in the Top 4 Finish market.

Outsiders for a top-four spot include Lille at 11/8 Lens at 13/8, Nice at 5/2 and Rennes at 3/1. On paper, they have the starting line-ups, squads, managers and all-round experience and quality to complete the top eight. All four of these clubs will be quietly confident that they can challenge for one of those highly coveted, top-four Champions League spots.

Based on their price being the biggest of the sides listed above, our selection to upset the odds and claim a top-four spot would be Rennes. Thanks to the transfer window work of new sporting director Frederic Massara, the club from Brittany have built a terrific squad, plugging some of the gaps - notably in defence - that were obvious last season.

Having finished only ninth in Ligue 1 last season, Rennes also have the same advantage that Marseille do, namely that they're not playing in Europe, so they can focus on domestic matters. This should give Rennes an edge over Lille, for example - who have made an exhaustingly early start to the season to play in the Champions League qualifiers - and also over Lens (who compete in the Conference League) and Nice (Europa League) as the season moves through the winter months and into the spring.

At the other end of the table, there are five strong contenders to end up in one of the two automatic relegation positions, in our view: Le Havre and Nantes, who finished two and three places respectively above the bottom two last season, and all three members of the newly promoted trio: Angers, Auxerre, and St Etienne. These five are the five shortest-priced teams in the Relegation market, showing the odds are about right.

Within the five, however, Le Havre are the value pick. The market makes them the fourth most likely team to go down, whereas we would make them in the bottom two. They only narrowly escaped the drop last season, have failed to strengthen their squad over the summer, and have taken an enormous gamble in choosing to replace their highly-rated manager Luka Elsner - who has departed to work with a better squad and a bigger budget at Reims - with rookie coach Didier Digard.

It might work out, but it's an almighty risk to place the future of a young, inexperienced, and average bunch of players in the hands of a young, inexperienced coach. If you're looking for a selection in the Relegation market, Le Havre would be it.

Now read our Premier League season previews and tips here.

Recommended bets

Back Marseille in the Top 4 Finish market @ 10/11Back Rennes in the Top 4 Finish market @ 3/1Back Le Havre in the Relegation market @ 9/4

James' Ligue 1 P/L 2020-21 to 2023-24 (inclusive)