Will this week cement Nottingham Forest as an elite team? | OneFootball

The rise of Nottingham Forest is becoming the story of the season, with many waiting for the penny to drop each week and the club to return to the norm of mid-table.

But each week, Forest continue to grab results. They sit third in the Premier League after 22 games played and currently on a nine-game unbeaten streak.

Heading into this week, Forest are set to face Bournemouth away from home, which has proven to be one of the toughest fixtures for top half sides this campaign. If Nuno Espirito Santo guides the Tricky Trees to another victory, making it 10 games unbeaten, will they finally cement themselves as an elite team, and even begin to threaten a Leicester City repeat?

To understand what makes them so good, we need to delve into the tactics and the numbers, to paint a picture on how Nottingham Forest above the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City.

Starting with the defence, it is clear to see Forest’s ability to defend in a low block, defend their box and concede few goals is a huge reason they are performing as well as they are. Only Arsenal and Liverpool — the two teams above them — have conceded fewer goals. Liverpool have conceded 20, Arsenal 21, and Forest 22.

Their defensive balance with Matz Sels in goal and Nikola Milenkovic with Murillo as centre-back partners has provided a sturdy foundation for Forest. Murillo averages the second-most clearances in the Premier League per 90 minutes at 6.55 — among players with at least 500 minutes played. This metric is often dominated by teams who sit further back, defending their own box more frequently, with Ipswich Town, Brentford, Leicester, Southampton and Everton all having multiple players in the top 20 for this stat.

So, Forest are willing to defend deep, inviting teams on to them, confident in their ability to win 1v1 duels and stop the opposition from scoring. After all, if the opposition can’t score, they can’t beat you. But it doesn’t stop there. Forest have also found a way to become the most devastating team on the break, winning the ball back in their own defensive third, and creating chances reliably from these zones.

Espirito Santo’s side average the highest possessions won in their own defensive third in the Premier League, averaging 22.86 per 90. Ola Aina (who has been exceptional this season) has a huge part to play in that, averaging 4.09 possessions won in the defensive third, the highest in the Premier League among players with at least 500 minutes. Not only that, but second on the list is Elliot Anderson, who wins possession in the defensive third 3.83 times per 90.

So how do Forest turn these deep turnovers into key attacking moments? Well the beauty of that comes from what the likes of Aina and Anderson do the moment they recover the ball.

On the right you have Aina’s movement and passing map and on the left, you have Anderson’s movement and passing map from Forest’s 2-3 win against Manchester United. And these maps show exactly what both players do, on opposite sides of the pitch, in regards to progressing the ball once they regain possession in deeper areas.

Their ability to carry the ball forwards or pick a quick pass into one of the forward players, allows Forest to start their attacks at pace, breaking quickly from within this low block defensively and attacking the open space left by the opposition team.

Often on the left, Anderson can pick the ball up and drive the team forwards himself, averaging 2.79 attempted take-ons per 90 and completing 1.56. On the right hand side, it can differ, as Aina has the quality to provide these progressive carries himself. But Aina also has the help of Morgan Gibbs-White ahead of him, often operating in that right half space. The Englishman averages 2.82 attempted take-ons per 90 and 1.38 completed take-ons, giving Forest that carrying power on both sides of the pitch.

And this is where the links to Matheus Cunha begin to make even more sense, a player who thrives at carrying the ball forwards. Cunha is averaging 3.98 attempted take-ons per 90 this season, completing 2.07 of them, giving him the third highest ranking for take-ons completed per 90 in the Premier League this season, only behind Eberechi Eze and Djed Spence.

Now, it’s worth noting that Nottingham Forest are the least-frequent passers in the Premier League this season, averaging 264.14 passes completed per 90. This adds to the context that Forest are happy to sit in their low block, and burst out when the time is right, often through that carrying power in order to generate their attacking moments.

Forest are averaging 17.5 progressive carries per 90, despite averaging the lowest amount of possession per game (39.6%). Only Bournemouth are averaging more progressive carries than Forest for a team with less than 50% possession, which again epitomises their style of play.

Cunha would add this same ability to receive the ball in deep areas — within the low block — and burst out with his ability to carry the ball forwards, creating those attacking moments for Forest. In another boost for the Tricky Trees, they have managed to tie down their top scorer on a new contract. The man finishing off these chances at such a high rate, Chris Wood.

Wood ranks 15th in the Premier League among strikers with at least 500 minutes for Expected Goals per 90 (0.41). But he is scoring 0.72 goals per 90, which shows the clinical finishing Wood is demonstrating this season.

The 33-year-old has scored 14 goals in 22 Premier League appearances this season, making him the joint-fourth top scorer in the league this season. Wood has been doing the majority of his work in the box, reliably finishing chances created for him, in order to turn one point into three on many occasions.

As good as this has been, the numbers do suggest Wood won’t continue to score at the same rate he has done so far, due to the chance creation he is getting. This could again explain the addition of Cunha, who is scoring 0.53 goals per 90, and therefore could add more goals and creation to Forest’s side going forwards.

Overall, Nottingham Forest are proving you don’t have to control the game in order to be successful, as long as you can defend reliably under sustained pressure for long periods of time and make the most of your attacks when they come.