Three reasons why Arsenal can turn around Carabao Cup semi-final against Newcastle | OneFootball

Reasons for the Gunners to be optimistic as they bid to overturn 2-0 first-leg deficit

Arsenal have a mountain to climb when they play Newcastle in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final at St. James’ Park on Wednesday.

In the 32 instances of a side losing the first leg of a League Cup semi-final by a margin of two or more goals, only once have they progressed.

That came in the 1993-94 season when Aston Villa overturned a 3-1 first leg deficit against Tranmere.

But Arteta is bullish about Arsenal’s chances of turning the tie around.

Here, Standard Sport looks at why he is right to be optimistic.

Newcastle invulnerability has gone

St. James’ Park is so often a fortress for Newcastle, but not in recent weeks.

Eddie Howe’s side have lost their last two home games, conceding six goals.

Newcastle have suffered back-to-back home defeats to Bournemouth and Fulham

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An injury-hit Bournemouth ran out 4-1 winners on January 18 and then last weekend Fulham came from behind to win 2-1 after two goals in the final half-hour.

Such results should give Arsenal confidence that they can go there and pull off what would be a memorable comeback.

The Gunners have a miserable recent record at Newcastle, losing both of their last two visits 1-0 and having just one shot on target on each occasion.

But Newcastle look far more vulnerable than they did then and Arsenal will hope an early goal on Wednesday could ramp up the pressure on them.

Mood at both clubs has shifted since first leg

The new Champions League format meant clubs had to squeeze in two extra games this January.

The knock-on impact is there has been a huge gap between the first and second leg of this semi-final.

Arsenal beat Manchester City 5-1 on Sunday and are unbeaten in six matches

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Last season, there was a fortnight between the first and second legs - but this time the gap is four weeks.

Arsenal have played seven games in that time and, after being dumped out of the FA Cup by Manchester United, are unbeaten in their last six matches.

That run has included wins over Manchester City and Tottenham, which has lifted the mood at the club.

Newcastle, in contrast, have played five games and lost their last two games at home since the first leg.

Bournemouth and Fulham offer blueprint for success

Midfield has been one of Newcastle’s biggest strength this season.

The return of Sandro Tonali has given them another dimension in the middle of the park, with the Italian forming a great understanding with Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton.

Fulham exposed gaps between the Newcastle defence and midfield

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In their recent defeats to Bournemouth and Fulham, however, Howe admitted his side lacked control.

Both sides were able to exploit space in the middle of the park and it led to Newcastle shipping six goals.

A further worry for Newcastle is that Joelinton is a doubt for the game against Arsenal with a knee injury.