Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Genoa – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan have the opportunity to mathematically secure qualification for next year’s Supercoppa Italiana with a win tomorrow, taking on Genoa at home. However, without the support of Curva Sud, it will be a very special game for the Rossoneri.

Curva Sud announced on Friday morning that they will be present at the stadium, but there will be no cheering, flags or banners in their section. After the statement published, this is the second step of their protest against the management.

Pioli admitted that it will be special without their support tomorrow but stated that the players are fully focused on defending second place. During the pre-match press conference, he also confirmed that it will be an attacking-minded XI tomorrow.

Game date: Sunday, May 4Kick-off time: 18:00 (CEST)Venue: San SiroReferee: Alessandro Prontera (VAR: Serra)

Team news

A total of six players will be on the sidelines for the game tomorrow: Mike Maignan (injury), Davide Calabria (suspension), Simon Kjaer (injury), Yunus Musah (suspension), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (injury) and Luka Jovic (injury). Still, the situation has improved compared to the Juventus game.

Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernandez are both back from suspension, meaning the defence will return to normal operations after Milan started with Yunus Musah at right-back and Alessandro Florenzi at left-back against Juve. Davide Calabria is still suspended, though, it should be noted.

Pierre Kalulu and Tommaso Pobega have both recovered from their injuries and will thus be called up for tomorrow’s game. Pioli even stated during his presser that they could get a few minutes, but obviously that will depend on how the clash pans out.

As alluded to, it will be an attacking-minded XI as both Samuel Chukwueze and Christian Pulisic will play from the first minute. Loftus-Cheek’s injury has more or less forced Pioli to this solution, but it worked well against Lecce so it will be interesting to see it again.

Olivier Giroud will keep his spot up front, despite a tough display against Juventus, and many fans might wonder what Noah Okafor has to do to get a chance. Pioli highlighted his potential during the presser, but it’s a bit strange not to see him from start here.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Sportiello; Florenzi, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Bennacer, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao; Giroud.

Note: Sky’s graphic is incorrect, they have stated Tomori but it says Gabbia.

The opponents

Having been promoted ahead of the current season, it must be said that Genoa have done a good job under the guidance of the former Milan man Alberto Gilardino. With four games left to play, they are 13 points clear of relegation and can thus prepare for another season in the top flight.

Gilardino has reached an agreement with the club to extend his contract and this shows that the management has a lot of faith in him. From mid-December to the start of February, they went eight games without losing and this obviously set them up well in avoiding relegation.

In any case, Genoa are no pushovers and they showed that by beating both Roma and Lazio, drawing twice against Juventus and drawing against Inter. Milan, meanwhile, had to rely on an 87th-minute winner from Pulisic to secure all three points.

Albert Gudmundsson and Mateo Retegui are the undisputed stars of the team, with 14 and 6 goals respectively, so it’s a huge blow that the former might not be able to feature tomorrow. He has been struggling with a fever and it remains to be seen if he will be called up.

For now, the predicted XIs have him included in the front two but Gilardino himself admitted that they will test him today. The manager also stated that Milan are ‘a team of great quality, talented and strong on set-pieces’.

Predicted Genoa XI (3-5-2): Martinez; Vogliacco, De Winter, Vasquez; Sabelli, Thorsby, Badelj, Frendrup, Martin; Gudmundsson, Retegui.

Head to head

Milan have been very strong against Genoa in recent years, winning 9 out of the last 12 league games against the Rossoblu (2D, 1L). The trend is very similar in Coppa Italia, winning the last five games, and the Rossoneri are thus big favourites for tomorrow’s clash.

The reverse fixture was far from given, though, as Milan struggled to put Genoa in difficulty and could have let in a few goals themselves. Ultimately, though, it was a moment of brilliance from Pulisic and heroics from Giroud in goal which sealed the three points.

The last time they faced each other at San Siro in the league, though, was in 2022 (the Scudetto season) when Rafael Leao opened the scoring early on and Junior Messias sealed the deal. We didn’t know it then, but it ended up being a very important win in the Scudetto race (Inter then lost their game in hand).

Key facts and stats

➤ AC Milan have won each of their last four Serie A matches against Genoa. In their top-flight history, only once have Milan had a longer winning run against the Grifone – seven wins between 1959 and 1963.

➤ Genoa have failed to score in their last three league matches against AC Milan and could equal their longest streak without finding the net against the Devil in the competition – four games in a row which they managed between 1965-1974 and between 2011-2013.

➤ Across all competitions, AC Milan are winless in each of their last five matches (D2 L3). Under manager Stefano Pioli they have only recorded a longer winless streak once before – a run of seven between January and February 2023 (D2 L5).

➤ AC Milan have lost their last two home games across all competitions (vs Roma and Inter) and could suffer three defeats in a row at home for the first time since between February and March 2014 (vs Atlético de Madrid, Juventus and Parma) under Clarence Seedorf.

➤ Genoa won last time out in Serie A (3-0 vs Cagliari) and could win back-to-back matches for only the second time in the league this season – having previously done so vs Salernitana and Lecce in January. However, the last time the Rossoblù kept a clean sheet in two games in a row in the competition was between February and March 2022 (a run of four in that case).

➤ Genoa have only lost one of their last nine Serie A away matches (W3 D5), with their only defeat on the road in this period coming at San Siro against Inter (1-2 in March 2024).

➤ Genoa have scored the fewest goals from crosses (3) in Serie A this season. Meanwhile, AC Milan have conceded the fewest goals from such situations (2) this season.

➤ Christian Pulisic scored the winning goal for Milan in the reverse match (1-0 in October). The American international has found the net 10 times in Serie A in 2023/24, with all of his last seven coming against teams currently in the bottom part of the table.

➤ This match will see the player with the most big chances created (Rafael Leão, 17) go up against the one with the most chances created from set play in the league this season (Albert Gudmundsson, 47).

➤ Among the players of newly promoted teams in the Big five European leagues this season, no one has scored more than Albert Gudmundsson (14) – including five across his last seven Serie A appearances.

Ones to watch

For Milan, it will be interesting to see Marco Sportiello between the sticks again. He did a very good job against Juventus last time out and will be hoping to continue on the same path. He can do even more with his feet, though, so it remains to be seen if he will be bolder tomorrow.

In addition to the goalkeeper Samuel Chukwueze from start is always nice and his partnership with the others will likely be key for the game. It worked well against Lecce, as already mentioned, and the Nigerian has also been in good form lately.

Should he make it, it’s clear that Albert Gudmundsson will be the most important player for Genoa tomorrow. Milan have actually been keeping tabs on him, but the competition is fierce, and his ability to create chances (and convert them) will be crucial for the Rossoblu tomorrow.

Finally, Morten Thorsby is a very strong midfielder who doesn’t hesitate to put in a challenge, so he will likely make life difficult for Milan tomorrow. Especially Christian Pulisic could struggle against his physicality, so it remains to be seen how that will pan out.

Prediction

Milan are the favourites, there’s no doubt about it, but Genoa have done well enough this season to come into this clash with confidence. Especially since the win in the reverse fixture was far from a given, and now the support of the fans will not be the same (due to Curva Sud’s protest). A narrow win, therefore, is likely.

Milan 1-0 Genoa