PSG v Arsenal: French football expert James Eastham says Ligue 1 hosts must be opposed

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·6. Mai 2025

PSG v Arsenal: French football expert James Eastham says Ligue 1 hosts must be opposed

UEFA Champions League

For a second week running Gianluigi Donnarumma will have a massive role for PSG

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PSG hold a 1-0 advantage going into their second leg tie against Arsenal in Paris, but despite having home advantage Frech football expert James Eastham isn't convinced the hosts will get the job done...

PSG vs ArsenalWednesday, 20:00 GMT

The View From PSG

Confidence levels are high in the home camp, as you would imagine given their result and performance in the first leg last week. PSG are 1.24 in the To Qualify market, and few people in France would argue with that assessment given the superiority Luis Enrique players showed en route to winning 1-0 last week.

PSG will be fresh going into the game, too: all 11 of their likely starting line-up sat out some or all of their inconsequential 2-1 defeat at Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Saturday. Nursing a slight knock, Ousmane Dembele - scorer of the first-leg winner last week - returned to training on Monday morning. Latest reports say he should be fit to start.

Gunners offer better value

In our preview of last Tuesday's encounter at the Emirates Stadium, we correctly predicted that PSG's chances of emerging from that first leg with either a win or a draw were underrated.

Our view - which proved right in the end - was that home advantage would not necessarily prove an advantage for Arsenal, and that there was so little between the teams that the value led with the visitors, who were big outsiders on the night.

The week, the reverse is true. Hosts PSG are clear favourites to win, and we believe this is a wrong reading of the game. The club from the French capital are 2.16 to secure victory in normal time, while Arsenal are 3.55, and The Draw is 3.85.

PSG may have been the better team last week, but in a more general and longer-term sense, there is little difference in quality between the sides. PSG are Ligue 1 champions, while Arsenal sit second in the Premier League, which is a stronger domestic top division.

PSG may have beaten Liverpool en route to the last four, but Arsenal beat Real Madrid, and in more emphatic fashion. And, for all the plaudits that PSG have understandably received during their journey to the last-four stage, it ought to be remembered that they lost one leg of both their Last-16 clash vs Liverpool (0-1 at home), and their quarter-final meeting vs Aston Villa (3-2 at Villa Park).

Arsenal may have struggled to break down PSG last week - and on the rare occasions they earned a clear sight of goal, they failed to get past Gianluigi Donnarumma, who produced two outstanding saves. But that does not mean North Londoners will be similarly blunted this week.

Anybody watching PSG regularly this season will know that, while Luis Enrique's side have some obvious strengths, they occasionally come up short defensively. It would almost be out of character for them to defended solidly over 180 minutes against opposition as capable as Mikel Arteta's visitors.

Taking all factors into account, our advice would be to oppose PSG in some way. The Ligue 1 champions may qualify, but their odds to win in normal time look too short to us.

The smartest options include laying PSG at 2.18 on our Exchange. By doing so, you will make a profit if PSG fail to win in 90 minutes. For a fantastic video guide to using our Exchange, click here.

Alternatively, back Arsenal on the Draw No Bet market on the Sportsbook at 7/5. With this pick, you will have your stakes refunded in the event of the game finishing all-square, and make a profit at a good odds-against price if Arsenal win in normal time.

A third option is to back Arsenal-Draw on the Double Chance market. This selection is as straightforward as it sounds: you will make a profit if Arsenal win, or if the game ends in a draw, in both instances at the end of normal time.

Visitors will pose big scoring threat

Looking at the contenders in the Player Shots on Target market, there are few prices of interest. The market has wised-up to the strengths of this PSG side, and most notably to the quality of their full-backs.

Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes have attacked excellently from their starting berths at right-back and left-back respectively this season. Ordinarily, the duo would be of interest in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots on Target market. Yet for this game, they are as short as 6/4 and 5/2 respectively in this market, however, meaning they hold little appeal.

One props selection that is worth considering is Arsenal in the Team To Have 5 Or More Shots On Target market. Even though they were below their best in the opposition half last week, Arsenal still managed five shots on target in the first leg.

Trailing 1-0 from that first leg, and with the potential to play better in the final third than they did in the first meeting, the odds of 11/10 on Arsenal are worth considering.