Preston North End v Burnley: Back the hosts to earn a result at 8/5 | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Ryan Deeney previews Preston North End v Burnley

Lancashire rivals Preston North End and Burnley face off at Deepdale with bragging rights and promotion hopes at stake...

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Preston North End v BurnleySaturday 15th February, 12:30Live on Sky Sports

Local rivals with a long history

Preston North End and Burnley first met on 8th September 1888, the opening day of the first ever English Football League season in a game that finished 5-2 to the hosts.

History is unlikely to repeat itself nearly 137 years on in a game between two sides who prioritise keeping the back door shut over attacking flair.

The focus for this early Saturday kick-off will focus primarily on Burnley, their ludicrous defensive record and promotion hopes as they look to move into the top two, if only for a couple of hours.

However, Paul Heckingbottom has achieved success at this level and his Lilywhites are just seven points off 6th place with a game in hand on most above them. Victory here would be a statement of their ambition.

Will Burnley ever concede again?

Burnley do not concede goals.

They are now 32 games into this Championship season and have conceded just nine times. They have just broken an EFL record for 10 clean sheets in a row. They have not conceded more than once in a league game. It's incredible.

The running concern is that their overperformance is astonishing - their xGA suggests they ought to have conceded at least 17 more goals than they actually have. They have conceded 8.9xG across those last ten matches, or 7.3xG if you remove the Sunderland penalties. How long will this continue?

And it's not as if they are incredible going forward either. In those last ten, they have scored more than once just twice - against relegation threatened Plymouth Argyle and Hull City. They have scored 2 or more goals in just five of 21 matches against sides currently in the top 17 of the Championship.

Preston more than solid at home

I write all the above to say that Preston North End have a chance.

They have been excellent at home, losing just one of 14 matches at Deepdale under Paul Heckingbottom. They have already picked up points against Leeds United, Sunderland, Blackburn Rovers and West Bromwich Albion.

And crucially, coming into this one, they don't concede many either. They have conceded 1 or 0 in their last eight at home, conceding just 7.6xG in that time. And of the three matches in which they have conceded more than 1xG, two came against Leeds United and Middlesbrough, two of the best attacking outfits in the division. Burnley aren't hitting their levels.

Are they good going forward? Not exactly. Preston have had chance creation issues for a long time and it's something Heckingbottom will hope to resolve over time. However, his team are finding the net, doing so in 12 of his 14 home matches in charge. They have scored in each of their last seven.

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