Premier League big six – The proof nothing lasts forever | OneFootball

The Premier League big six was set in stone.

At least in the eyes of many / most football fans.

The same half dozen clubs set to be the ‘Premier League big six’ for the foreseeable…

Recent seasons had seen West Ham and in particular, Leicester, come close to breaking into the top four and potentially cracking open the Premier League big six, but it wasn’t to be. Instead, only very temporarily getting amongst the top half dozen. The Foxes managing fifth place in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the Hammers sixth in 2020/21.

All of which meant that since 2005, only when Leicester shocked the football world in 2016 when winning the Premier League, had anybody but Premier League big six clubs played in the Champions League.

That is of course, until Newcastle United’s arrival at the top table.

Eddie Howe and the NUFC owners not just politely tapping on the door in an attempt to get noticed, more like battering it down and demanding full attention from all.

So, Newcastle United breaking the Champions League qualifying cartel that the Premier League big six had in operation.

However, now we have a new slant on things, from those determined to take away the hopes and dreams Newcastle United fans have now got.

Instead of Champions League football supposedly being beyond NUFC, now it is going beyond that, instead it is challenging for the very top prizes that Newcastle United can’t possibly manage to do.

The main evidence put forward is Manchester City.

The theory being that they are now so dominant that this is set to be the status quo for many years ahead.

History tells us though, that this simply isn’t the case. There are no guarantees no matter how strong a team / club looks. no matter how long they have been the dominant club.

There is no doubt that Manchester City are looking top quality, having just made it five titles in six years under Pep Guardiola. Winning so much other silverware as well in recent seasons, including the FA Cup last weekend and very likely the Champions League this coming weekend.

However, in the opening nine seasons under the new / current Man City owners, they only won the Premier League twice and one of those was only due to scoring two goals in added time in the very final match of the season.

I think this tells you a couple of things.

Spending / having money is no guarantee of success. Having the right manager is though invariably crucial to ongoing success. Even this season, for so long Arsenal were favourites to win the league and indeed they only lost the title by five points after having been so many points ahead. In their final nine games, Arsenal dropped fifteen points.

Indeed, even if in just the last three matches, Arsenal had won at home against Brighton and away at Forest, Man City wouldn’t have been champions.

The idea that Newcastle United (and everybody else) don’t have any chance of challenging Man City, is just not true. Especially if / when Pep Guardiola leaves.

Just look at Man Utd, they hadn’t won the top tier for 26 years until winning the title in 1993. That began a run of 13 league titles in 21 years. Who back in 2013 would have predicted not a single title in the next decade for them, indeed, they haven’t even really been serious challengers in that time.

Arsenal with twenty top four finishes in a row and then the fans forced him out. Six seasons with no Champions League has been a sobering experience for Arsenal fans and only now have they managed to return.

Chelsea were a nothing club really until Abramovich bought them trophies for two decades. To me they seem a club built on quicksand, no real foundations, a small fanbase and stadium, now with crazy owners who thought they could reinvent football, at least the financial side of it. Simply buying trophies has recently become so much tougher and with the money wasted already and the FFP implications, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chelsea owners bail out very quickly, realising there was no easy pot of gold waiting for them.

Between 1972/73 and 1990/91, Liverpool finished top two in 18 of 19 seasons, winning the title 11 times. A bit like Man U more recently, nobody would have guessed back in 1990 that the scousers would take 30 years to win the title again.

Nothing is forever, no matter how dominant a team / club look in England.

As for the other member of the Premier League big six, have Tottenham in reality, ever been big. They have only won two top tier titles in their histories and a bit like Chelsea, if not based in London I think far less would ever have been made of them.

They have had seven top four finishes in the Premier League era and a big factor in that has been Mike Ashley crippling Newcastle United for  decade and a half, to help open up the possibility. NUFC managed five top four finishes in a ten year period before Ashley came along and now Newcastle United are, in my opinion, simply now returned to the norm, finishing way ahead of Spurs this past season and setting a marker for the years to come.

I also find it amusing that the Champions League is similarly put forward as something impossible to win, for those not amongst the self-appointed elite.

To me, history very much tells you that all English clubs who qualify , have every chance of being competitive, especially in recent times as the financial supremacy of the Premier League makes it so difficult for those in other leagues to compete.

Even when Leicester got that one-off chance in 2016/17, they got to the quarters and very unlucky not to make the semis.

The last four seasons had seen four different English clubs make the final – Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City. Man City of course are back in the final on Saturday, whilst an English club (Liverpool) were also in the 2018 final. After Saturday, the last six finals will have seen the Premier League supply seven of the twelve finalists.

Whilst from 2006 onwards, the 18 finals have contained all of the Premier League big six, providing 14 of the 36 finalists in this time period.

Put simply, if you can finish regularly towards the top end in the Premier League over a period of time, you will get many chances to win trophies and very likely to find yourself in a one or more Champions League finals.

The biggest challenge for English clubs has increasingly become being able to break into the elite in the Premier League.

Now Newcastle United have managed to do this so quickly under Eddie Howe and the new ownership, simply a case of building on the stunning work so far.