Opta Predicts Tottenham v Man City: Plump for Porro in huge 44/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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Our Opta Analyst has produced a big 44/1 Bet Builder for Tottenham v Man City

After delving deep into the stats again, our Opta Analyst has pulled out a huge 44/1 Bet Builder for Tottenham v Man City on Wednesday night and predicts more misery for Pep Guardiola...

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The big games don't stop coming for Manchester City, which probably isn't great news considering how they are faring in them.

Having already been beaten twice by Tottenham so far this season, a trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is unlikely to be something Pep Guardiola will be taking lightly.

Let's have a look at the best betting angles for Tottenham v Man City.

Swerve City at odds-on price

Manchester City come into this having lost back-to-back matches in all competitions following a 3-1 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League last Wednesday and a 2-0 reversal at home to runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday.

It is the third time this season that Guardiola's side have lost matches sequentially. Their first such run was a five-game losing streak kicked off by their 2-1 defeat away to Tottenham in the EFL Cup round of 16 in October.

For context, Manchester City had only previously lost more than one match in the same sequence three times in the last four seasons combined prior to the 2024/25 campaign.

But comparisons with City teams of seasons gone by seem almost futile when trying to analyse their current crop, given that they are so far behind anything we have seen from them under Guardiola.

While they retained fourth place following that 2-0 defeat to Liverpool, results elsewhere have seen the division concertina below them, with just two points now separating City and eighth-placed Aston Villa. The gap to Fulham in 10th, meanwhile, is just five points.

The 44 points accrued by City up to this point is their lowest total after 26 Premier League games since the 2008/09 season (32) in which the Abu Dhabi takeover happened. In each of the last eight seasons, meanwhile, they have been at least 10 points better off at this stage than they currently are.

So, when it comes to betting, we need to stop treating City as if they were at the peak of their powers and take advantage when they are short-priced favourites - they are 10/11 to take three points in the Match Odds 90 market despite having the 10th-best away record in the Premier League (W5 D3 L5).

For context, City are the only odds-on away team in this round of fixtures, while Arsenal, who have the second-best travelling record, are evens at Nottingham Forest in the same market.

Their performance against Liverpool was flat and, with no Erling Haaland in the squad, City struggled from a lack of cutting edge and recorded their lowest xG figure of the season (0.65).

That follows on from their defeat away to Real Madrid, in which Haaland did not get off the bench and City took until the 76th minute to have their first shot on target.

While Haaland's injury is reportedly a minor one, it seems doubtful that he would be able to return to the starting XI just three days after having been out.

Spurs, meanwhile, have snapped a skid that left them with just one point from seven league games between mid-December and the end of January. Upwardly mobile, they are now 12th in the Premier League table and trail the top six by 10 points after a run of three wins on the spin - as many wins as in their previous 15 and the first time they have achieved such a streak since December 2023.

Let's also not forget that Spurs seem to have City's number this season, having already beaten them on two occasions.

The aforementioned EFL Cup win came first but, just under a month later, Spurs went to the Etihad Stadium and battered Manchester City 4-0. Similarly, that victory came after some iffy form for Spurs, having won two of their previous five league games, suggesting not to read too much into their previous strife.

Victory for Tottenham here would create history in becoming the first team to beat both Manchester sides three times in the same campaign. They are worth siding with at 23/10 in the standard win/draw/win market, while 8/11 about the double chance is also a bet considering City's travelling record.

Stale City to struggle going forward

Manchester City recorded their lowest xG (0.65) of the season against Liverpool, a match that was also the sixth time this term they have registered a figure below one.

Should Haaland miss out again, it's worth looking at BTTS: No at 5/2 or under 1.5 away goals at 6/4. This comes with the caveat that, over the course of the season, City have scored the second-most goals (52) and generated the second-highest xG (46.83), but there is a chance we are getting in ahead of a trend forming here.

Crucially, Tottenham have beaten City to nil once already this season and, with Guglielmo Vicario back in goal, things seems to be going a little better. The Italian ranks third for goals prevented (3.5) and fifth for save percentage (72.92%) among goalkeepers to have made more than five league appearances this season.

He kept a clean sheet in his first game back in the 1-0 home victory over Manchester United two weeks ago, while Spurs have now conceded just one goal in three Premier League matches, with the first clean sheet in that sequence kept by Antonin Kinsky.

Porro can make his mark

With the vast majority of Tottenham's attacks coming down either side, it makes sense to look at the flanks for our main goal threats.

Pedro Porro ranks second for assists in the Spurs squad, having contributed five in the league so far, while he has also created 37 chances - only Dejan Kulusevski and Son Heung-min have set up more opportunities. While the Spaniard is 9/2 for an assist, it is also worth noting that Spurs have scored three goals on the counter so far this season, ranking equal-eighth. Given that they are likely to spend long periods out of possession in their own half on Wednesday, the assist or score price of 11/4 could be of interest as well. Porro also scored in November's win at the Etihad Stadium.

Porro is also worth siding with in a Build Ups bet against James Maddison for potential assists. Maddison's price is more than 30% shorter than Porro's to register an assist despite the former having contributed the same number in the league (five).

Maddison himself has won at least one foul in each of his last 34 home Premier League starts (85 in total), including exactly two in each of his last three. He has won four or more fouls in each of his last three games against Manchester City and is 1/2 to win two or more on Wednesday.

Brennan Johnson is another player who could help Tottenham get ahead. The 23-year-old has scored 14 goals in all competitions this season, including four in his last seven appearances in all competitions.

Johnson bagged a brace in Tottenham's 4-1 victory over Ipswich on Saturday and is 5/2 to score again on Wednesday. He has had 45 shots in the league this season - only Dominic Solanke has had more in the Spurs squad - including nine in his last four starts. He is 8/15 to have two or more shots here.

Back Porro & Maddison stats in big 44/1 Bet Builder

So with all those stats having been considered, a big 44/1 Bet Builder can be backed on the Betfair Sportsbook for the following four-fold.

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Back Spurs win to nil, Porro goal or assist & Maddison fouled 2+ times @ 44/1