Opta Predicts Everton v Liverpool: Back Gapko goal in 73/1 derby Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta have picked a 73/1 Bet Builder for Everton v Liverpool

Opta make the case for a big match wager on Wednesday as they back Liverpool to beat Everton in a Merseyside derby Bet Builder at 73/1...

On Wednesday night, we've a bonus Premier League treat in store as the rearranged Merseyside derby runs concurrently alongside the Champions League play-off fixtures.

The last fixture of its kind at Goodison Park is sure to be an interesting one and a win would be huge for both sides for different reasons. Let's look into the data to see where the best betting angles lie.

Back Liverpool to edge it against Everton

Re-appointing David Moyes has proven to be a masterstroke for Everton, in the short term at least anyway.

Everton come into this fixture on the back of three consecutive Premier League victories, albeit having lost to Bournemouth in the FA Cup at the weekend. It is just the second time since the start of 2024 that Everton have won three league games on the bounce, while they have taken nine points from a possible 12 in the league under Moyes.

That run has been timely and, while the Toffees are just two places above the relegation zone, there are now nine points between them and the bottom three. According to the Opta supercomputer, Everton now have just a 1.04% chance of relegation.

For context, they were just one point clear of the bottom three and had a 16.6% chance of going down when Sean Dyche was sacked.

So, what we can be certain about is that Everton pose a much more difficult proposition now than on 7 December, when the match had previously been scheduled. That would have been in the middle of a run of one league victory in 12 matches, with Everton having also failed to score in nine of those.

What has been striking about Everton under Moyes has been the way in which they start games - they are yet to concede a single league goal in the first-half, while seven of their eight goals under him have come in the opening 45 minutes.

Their first-half xG for also comes to 1.1 per game under Moyes, as opposed to 0.42 under Dyche. At the other end, Everton have faced an average of 0.41 xG fewer per game under Moyes in the first-half and they have outshot their opposition by a cumulative total of three.

Given Liverpool's recent form - they have scored one first-half goal in their five domestic away games in 2025 - there could be value in Everton to win the first half at 6/1, while 8/11 about the hosts on the +1 first-half handicap looks a good shout.

It is also worth remembering that Everton have taken four points off their neighbours in the last two derbies at Goodison Park. They have also impressively only lost one of their five matches against the current top six (D4 L1), so are capable of at least competing in what looks likely to be a keenly contested derby.

But, as with any statistics in these previews, we have to apply some perspective, especially when the opposition is as impressive as Liverpool are this season. It's worth noting that Everton have played two top-eight sides in all competitions under Moyes, losing both matches to nil.

Liverpool are coming into this on the back of a shock 1-0 defeat to Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup fourth round, which was only the fourth time the Premier League leaders have been knocked out of the tournament by lower-league opposition.

Despite a poor performance, Liverpool did shade the non-penalty xG at 1.0 compared to Plymouth's 0.54. Without some goalkeeping heroics from home stopper Conor Hazard, the visitors would have at least sent the tie to extra-time.

Arne Slot also made 10 changes from Liverpool's 2-0 victory at Bournemouth in the Premier League the previous weekend, so we can say with reasonable certainty that those lining up at Goodison Park will bear little resemblance to the team from Home Park.

Slot's side are currently on a 19-match unbeaten run in the Premier League (W14 D5) and will go nine points clear at the top with a victory here. All eight of their matches against teams currently in the bottom seven have been victories and the Reds have been impressive on the road all season, recently emerging unscathed from tough trips to Brentford and Bournemouth.

Moyes, meanwhile, has a dreadful professional record against Liverpool, having lost 24 and won just four of his 37 matches managed against them. Since leaving Everton in 2013, he has beaten the Reds just once.

Neither team likely to go goal crazy

As we established earlier, Everton are a far better attacking prospect now than they were under Dyche.

Prior to Moyes' re-appointment, they had scored just 15 Premier League goals, more than only Southampton (12), with their 18.33 expected goals at that stage being the lowest figure in the top tier. Since Moyes took over, they have netted eight goals in four league games and generated chances worth 6.41 xG.

But, while BTTS looks a decent bet at 4/5, we can't expect the home side to go goal crazy. All of Everton's goals under Moyes have come against teams currently 10th or lower, while they failed to score against Aston Villa or Bournemouth, having a collective total of four shots on target across both matches.

With first-choice forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin also missing this game due to a hamstring injury, Everton are lacking firepower and that is reflected in their price of 1/5 for under 1.5 goals. Instead, Liverpool to win by exactly one goal is worth a look at 13/5.

Usual suspects to have their say for Liverpool

There are two names that jump off the page for Liverpool when it comes to the individual markets, and neither should be a surprise.

Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo are both having the seasons of their life. Salah tops the Premier League Golden Boot standings with 21 goals, while he has also registered 13 assists.

He has been directly involved in 21 goals across Liverpool's 12 away games this season (13 goals, eight assists). For context, that is already the joint-most goal contributions on the road by a player in Premier League history, and we are less than two-thirds of the way through the season. Given that he also takes penalties and has scored eight of them this season, the 1/1 about him to score anytime looks generous.

But interestingly, Salah has assisted 10 of Gakpo's goals for Liverpool, with the latter having scored 16 times in all competitions this season. That total already makes this the second-highest scoring season of Gakpo's career so far, while his shot-to-goal conversion rate of 19.05% in the Premier League this season is his best ratio to date.

Both Salah and Gakpo have matched one another with four goals each in their last eight domestic matches, while the Dutchman is the longer-priced pick at 15/8 anytime.

As a result of the discrepancy, this could also be one to look at for a Match Ups bet with the new Build Ups function. Match Ups bets let you put two players together in a head-to-head market, and Gakpo to score more goals than Salah is worth consideration here. Salah, meanwhile, is 2/1 to register an assist.

Aside from Calvert-Lewin, Ndiaye ranks first in the Everton squad for xG (3.58) and shots on target (11), while he has the best conversion rate (24%) of anyone to have played more than 10 matches. He is worth pitting against Beto in a Match Ups bet for goals, given that the latter is a shorter price to score at 7/2 despite having netted just three league goals.

Ndiaye is their top scorer with eight goals in all competitions, including six in the league. Of those goals, three have come in his last three league appearances against Leicester, Brighton and Tottenham.

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Back Everton to win first-half, Liverpool win by 1 goal and Gapko to score @ 73/1