La Liga Tips: Back 3/1 treble in intense Real and Atletico Madrid affair | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Will Carlo Ancelotti be celebrating a win over Atletico this weekend?

Matchday 23 in La Liga is headlined by Saturday night's derby between Real and Atletico Madrid, where Jamie Kemp is backing goals at both ends and Jude Bellingham to be a key catalyst...

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Las Palmas v Villarreal - Sat, 17:30

Since Diego Martinez came raring into Las Palmas and triggered a heck of a managerial bounce, things have started to cool off for him and his side since the turn of the year. Las Palmas only lost two of Martinez's first nine league games in charge and won six of them, including a signature away victory at Barcelona in November.

While the results were spectacular for a team that been struggling, the underlying numbers did provide a warning. In other words, it's not too much of a surprise that Las Palmas have suddenly stopped winning and haven't yet picked up a league victory in 2025 (D1 L3). Since Martinez's first match in October, his side rank 19th in the division for xGD (-13.1) - only marginally better than that of bottom side Real Valladolid (-13.6).

At the other end of the spectrum, you have Villarreal. Up until the turn of the year, the goals conceded column would have told you they were one of the worst defensive sides in La Liga (33 conceded in 18 games). Things have slowed on that front of late, however, and their underlying numbers have now started to match up with their results - after betraying them frequently last year.

For those who were watching along, it was clear Villarreal were better than their record and that silly defensive lapses and moments of misfortune were blurring their real level. Now back up in fifth place in La Liga and having the fourth-best xG difference (+16.1), it's a good time to start backing them.

Indeed, another thing that's reversing is Ayoze Perez's health and availability. The 31-year-old has been outstanding when he's played this season, netting nine goals in just 840 minutes played. That gives him the best minutes per goal ratio (93) of any player with 500+ minutes on the pitch in La Liga this term.

Back on home soil in the Canary Islands here, I like his chances of getting on the scoresheet.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - Sat, 20:00

Arguably the biggest game of the season to date, Atletico's trip across town to face Real Madrid pits together the top two in La Liga - and with both sides separated by just a single point.

As always, it will very likely be a story of Real Madrid's star power against the resistance of Atletico Madrid. Across the 11 times that Diego Simeone's side have played at the Bernabeu in La Liga, they've averaged just 36% possession and been heavily outshot.

With that said, however, Atletico have still been plenty competitive on the scoreboard. They've won as many times as they've lost (3) across these 11 games, and the overall scoreline of those matches comes out with just a two-goal difference in the home side's advantage (10-8).

The big news from the Real Madrid end is that Carlo Ancelotti is likely to have to play an almost entirely makeshift defence in this one. Antonio Rudiger, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal all remain unavailable, while a back four of Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asencio, Aurelien Tchouameni and Ferland Mendy would mark the first time Real Madrid have ever used that quadruple as a starting back four.

If it's instead Fran Garcia over Ferland Mendy, it would be only the second time they've used that particular starting four too - and the previous instance came in a loss away in Bilbao.

With all the upheaval in the home side's defence, Atletico will have to fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet and taking advantage of some breakdowns and miscommunications - even if they do spend much of the game attacking via counters. With the form their forward players are in - namely Julian Alvarez and Giuliano Simeone - this is a side who should be able to do damage when they find their opportunities to attack.

I will take both teams to score, however. Real Madrid have only failed to find the net in three of their last 40 home matches in La Liga, and they've netted a whopping 14 across their last four outings.

Along with that, I expect a particularly active night from Jude Bellingham - the man who loves a big occasion. He's been fouled on average of 2.4 times per 90 in La Liga this season, and you can expect Atletico to be aggressive with him. That'll only make him angry, though, and that's when he starts to attack the box with real gusto.

Sevilla v Barcelona - Sun, 20:00

Even if Hansi Flick says he wasn't watching, Real Madrid's surprising defeat to Espanyol has opened the door for Barcelona to start creeping back into the title race. And with the Madrid derby taking place on Saturday evening, Sunday might well be a day where they can look to claw back even more ground on their big rivals.

But although the league table might say this is a very winnable game for Barcelona, don't be deceived by the potential challenge that awaits them. The Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan comes alive when they arrive in town.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting a Sevilla win here. Their performance levels have been largely poor under new coach Garcia Pimienta, and there's still a lot to be done to convince everyone that the project he's overseeing is building towards anything good. However, these are the types of games where the home atmosphere can really drive them towards a more competitive level.

Sevilla have only failed to score in three of their last 12 home games against Barcelona in La Liga - and without undermining Flick's team, that includes numerous more impressive sides than the one they'll face on Sunday. Even when they've come up against ultra-talented Barca outfits, they've still regularly been able to work their way to goal.

Indeed, I'll opt for both teams to score as the main part of the tip in this one. Barcelona are an attacking juggernaut, netting 60 goals in just 27 league matches under Flick. Only the tightest defensive blocks can manage to shut them out. At the other end they have been fallible, though, having only managed one clean sheet in their last 11 outings in La Liga.

The man Barcelona could well have a hard time containing is Dodi Lukebakio. The Belgian is having one of the best scoring seasons by a Sevilla wide player this century (9 league goals), and he's precisely the type of threat that can cause problems for the away side's aggressive defensive line, who run the risks of playing offside to an almost absurd level.

In what should be a passionate and dynamic game, it'll only take one misstep for Lukebakio's speed and finishing ability to show itself once again.

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