Heart Over Head?

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Rund um den Brustring

·15. August 2024

Heart Over Head?

With the return of Deniz Undav, VfB has set another transfer record just a few weeks after signing Ermedin Demirović, fulfilling what seemed to be the biggest wish of their fans this summer break. So, is caution being thrown to the wind once again in Bad Cannstatt? Or have times simply changed?

It’s hard for me to remember the last time a contract signing on Mercedesstraße was met with such euphoria as the re-signing of Deniz Undav, who felt like he was just on an extended European Championship vacation. When Ermedin Demirović was signed, I drew comparisons to Jon Dahl Tomasson, who moved from AC Milan to Bad Cannstatt in 2005 but never quite lived up to his time in the red and black jersey. Perhaps the current excitement surrounding the 18-goal striker from last season can be most closely compared to the return of Alex Hleb, who VfB loaned out from FC Barcelona for the 2009–2010 Champions League season, but even that comparison doesn’t fully fit.

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Putting aside the fact that the 2000s are now nearly 20 years ago, football has generally changed massively, and so has VfB in recent years. Due to the financial holes caused by the pandemic, a stadium renovation, and two relegations, the club had to let go of several key players over the last four years, making at least 30 million euros every summer: Gregor Kobel, Nico González, Orel Mangala, Saša Kalajdžić, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Borna Sosa, Wataru Endo, Hiroki Ito, Waldemar Anton, Serhou Guirassy. Similar amounts were only previously brought in when the club needed to counterbalance the costs of relegation.

Development and Goals

Unlike in 2021 and 2022, last season’s departures did not lead to another relegation battle but rather to a push for European spots and the associated financial windfalls. So, can the VfB justify tying up at least 50 million euros in two players instead of countering the departure of key players by solely developing new talent, as they did in the past? The “Vertikalpass” blog comments on this as follows:

VfB is somewhat departing from its path of focusing on player development with these recent transfers. The enormous value appreciation of some players in the last three years has kept VfB from a financial downfall. It’s not necessarily likely that Demirović and Undav will achieve similar value increases, given the transfer sums involved. But it’s not impossible, as seen with Niclas Füllkrug. Moreover, with Millot, Stiller, Stergiou, Rieder, Rouault, and not least Diehl still in the squad, there are players who could generate transfer surpluses in the future.

So, it’s a clear “yes and no.” I feel similarly: On the one hand, the transfer fees for Demirović and Undav are obscenely high by VfB’s standards. Together, they cost about as much as González, Kabak, Guirassy, Kuzmanovic, and Silas combined. On the other hand, Fabian Wohlgemuth already started in the spring by signing three perspective players—Nick Woltemade, Yannik Keitel, and Justin Diehl—on free transfers, followed by the loans of Fabian Rieder, Frans Krätzig, the inexpensive transfer of Ramon Hendriks, and finally, the signing of an established Bundesliga player like Jeff Chabot, along with the permanent signings of Jamie Leweling, Anthony Rouault, and Leonidas Stergiou after their loan spells. Until Demirović’s signing, VfB had thus taken on a manageable financial risk.

Where Is the Money Coming From?

The size of the risk with Undav and Demirović can only be assessed by considering that for 50 million euros, several players could probably have been signed who might have performed equally well—or the money could have been saved for bad times. Danny Galm wrote two remarkable sentences in his article on the Undav signing on ZVW.de:

After all, the controlling bodies at Wasen would not have blessed the million-dollar transfer offensive if the free-spending weren’t solidly thought out and backed up. At least that’s the hope of the fans, who have too often seen in the past that the old saying, “the biggest mistakes are made in times of success,” has been impressively proven time and again in the red clubhouse on Mercedesstraße.

I would indeed trust the current supervisory board less at this point. Because it’s alarming that, according to Benni Hofmann’s research, VfB would have fallen into a threatening financial situation last year, despite avoiding relegation, without the Porsche deal. Now, on the other hand, thanks to the runner-up finish and the completed stadium, they seem to be free of financial worries, or as Alexander Wehrle stated at the general meeting, the economic consolidation phase will be completed after the upcoming season.

This makes it ultimately difficult to assess this year’s transfer summer financially: How much money was set aside for transfers without touching the emergency funds? What is the salary structure in the squad, and will salaries really decrease if VfB is no longer playing in Europe in the 2025–2026 season? It may seem petty to focus on such matters in the current phase, but we’ve all seen how VfB wasted money on squads that kept getting worse for ten years.

New Goals?

From a sporting and thus emotional perspective, the chairman and his sporting director have hit the bull’s eye. Our new striking duo is in its prime footballing years and has already proven its scoring prowess last season. If money can still be found somewhere for a right-footed central defender, the much-talked-about sell-off could be averted, and important players like Millot, Führich, Mittelstädt, Undav, or Nübel, as well as the coach, would be retained. If we put aside, for a moment, the “one-season-wonder” syndrome that traditionally afflicts VfB after successful seasons, there is currently little reason for pessimism. Especially since, with Undav, the club has not only retained a reliable goal scorer but also an integrative figure on and off the pitch, something we haven’t had in a long time—as was evident when he came on the pitch against Bilbao.

Nevertheless, with such investments, expectations also rise. Spending 50 million euros—to aim for 40 points first—seems inappropriate and cannot be the goal of the new striking duo. The same applies to the Champions League. Even if the campaign ends at the latest in the round of 16, this squad should ideally contribute to its own refinancing through match bonuses in the Champions League. And even if salaries may be staggered, for these investments to truly be worthwhile, VfB must also be represented in Europe again in the season after next. And that—let me repeat—is only one year after narrowly avoiding a disastrous sporting and financial relegation.

But why, damn it, shouldn’t VfB be able to write another success story despite all the justified pessimism we’ve conditioned ourselves to? I maintain that the club must seize this current phase as an opportunity to return to calmer waters and re-establish and consolidate itself both sportingly and financially. But perhaps we can also have a little fun along the way.