Georgia v Portugal: Shoot for glory in Group F finale | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Willy Sagnol's debutants must-win to have a chance of reaching the knockout stage

Football tipster Mark O'Haire is backing debutants Georgia to play their part in an entertaining Group F finale against a second-string Portugal side on Wednesday night.

Georgia v Portugal Wednesday June 26, 20:00Live on ITV

Mamardashvili the star man for Georgia

Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili produced a man-of-the-match display to help his side to their first-ever point at a major tournament after a 1-1 draw with the Czech Republic in a pulsating Group F clash in Hamburg. It means the Crusaders still stand a chance of progressing to the knockout stages of Euro 2024 - victory over Portugal is a must.

Georges Mikautadze gave Willy Sagnol's side an early lead from the penalty spot and substitute Saba Lobzhanidze had a wonderful opportunity to win the match with the very last kick of the game, only to blaze over with just Jindrich Stanek to beat and the goal gaping. However, the Czechs dominated proceedings between those two key moments.

Speaking post-match, Sagnol said: "We have absolutely nothing to lose. Our aim was to get experience from this EURO. I wasn't expecting us to win our debut tournament. It was very important to see what the highest level of football is like. We have a lot to learn, but we have shown that we can compete on this stage, and we'll give qualification our best shot."

Portugal progress as Group F winners

Portugal have already sealed their place as Group F winners, following up their late 2-1 success over Czech Republic with a dominant display when overcoming Turkey 3-0 in Dortmund. Bernardo Silva opened the scoring and a calamitous own goal by Samet Akaydin gave Roberto Martinez's men a helping hand before Bruno Fernandes wrapped things up.

Despite facing criticism following their opening effort, head coach Roberto Martinez was pleased with his side's performances and progress. He said, "I think our game was on the same level as the first - that is very important for us, to maintain a good level. The difference is that we managed to score early and were then able to control the match."

Martinez abandoned the system used in the opener of deploying three central defenders and reverted to a back four against Turkey with the Portugal chief eager to remain flexible and keep rivals guessing. With top spot now secure in the pool, the Selecao are expected to rest and rotate their squad; Rafael Leao is suspended and Diogo Jota is doubtful.

Selecao too short to support

Portugal 1.41 make little appeal as short-priced favourites with Roberto Martinez set to make wholesale changes. Of course, the Selecao boast a phenomenally strong squad and can bring in plenty of star quality, but with only seven sides pocketing maximum points from the group-stage over the last four major tournaments, it's a position I'm happy to overlook.

Georgia 9.00 were dismissed and written-off as no-hopers before a ball was kicked, and whilst the Crusaders were largely dominated by Czech Republic last time out, Willy Sagnol's plucky underdogs have caused plenty of problems in each of two opening tussles. The debutants have created seven Big Chances and 1.70 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG).

Even so, both the Czechs and Turkey have generated an xG tally greater than 3.0 when facing Georgia at Euro 2024, with both sides managing a minimum of 22 shots - over 10 of which have arrived from inside the penalty area, suggesting there should be plenty of goalmouth action as Georgia bid to keep their knockout dreams alive.

Shots and fouls stand-out

The shot markets therefore appeal here with 26 or more Shots available to support at 8/11. Four of Georgia's last five competitive matches have comfortably covered this line, as have nine of 14 going back further. In fact, half of the Crusaders' past 14 encounters (including friendlies) have seen at least 30 shots, a repeat this midweek pays a handsome 23/10.

With Georgia requiring a victory in their quest to progress, the underdogs will be desperate to play their part and are an interesting 23/10 to contribute 10 or more Shots on their own. However, punters looking for a way to side with Willy Sagnol's side should instead focus their attention on star man Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the relevant fouls markets.

The Napoli superstar has drawn six fouls from opponents across his opening two encounters (1.97 per-90) and is also one of Serie A's most fouled players over the past two campaigns. His twinkle-toed wing play and eye for a shot attract plenty of attention and Portugal right back Nelson Semedo should therefore expect a busy evening - he's 12/5 to make 2+ Fouls.

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Mark O’Haire says: Back 26 or more Shots @ 8/11