Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Manchester United 0 Newcastle United 2

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The Mag

·2. Januar 2025

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Manchester United 0 Newcastle United 2

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Monday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Villa 1.88 v Brighton 0.94 (2-2)

Ipswich 1.50 v Chelsea 1.61 (2-0)

Man U 1.00 v Newcastle United 2.24 (0-2)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Clearly Villa the better side with twice the Expected Goals stat, so Brighton fortunate to get a draw.

Whilst Ipswich with a very similar Expected Goals stat as Chelsea but taking their chances, including the opening goal from the penalty spot that would have made up much of their Expected Goals stat.

Then we have Newcastle United and their 2-0 win at Man U.

A few important things to point out here.

Newcastle United with easily the highest Expected Goals stat of all six PL teams that played on Monday.

Eddie Howe’s side blew Man U away in the first half and that opening 45 minutes will make up the overwhelming majority of that 2.24 Expected Goals stat.

Indeed, the first 30 minutes of action will make up the vast majority of it.

Newcastle United absolutely battered Man U in that first half hour and it could and should have seen United four or five goals up. As well as the two goals that were scored, you had Isak one on one with Onana, Tonali somehow hitting the post instead of the net from close in, as well as other great chances.

As for Man U, I think the vast majority of their 1.00 Expected Goals stat will be from when Schar gifted the chance where Casemiro only had Dubravka to beat but put it well wide.

Newcastle United just strolled the second-half, looking to see a comfortable win out, without wasting too much energy in a very busy part of the season.

If they had needed to, I think NUFC could and would have gone up another gear, getting another two or three goals and ending up with an Expected Goals stat of at least 4.00.

Man U were very lucky in this game, getting away with only a two goal defeat.

If you don’t believe this then you clearly weren’t watching the match on Monday.

Manchester United 0 Newcastle United 2 – Monday 30 December 8pm

Newcastle United:

(In brackets the half-time stats)

Possession was Newcastle 47% (51%) Man U 53% (49%)

Total shots were Newcastle 12 (11) Man U 10 (3)

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 (4) Man U 1 (0)

Corners were Newcastle 3 (3) Man U 2 (0)

Touches in the box Newcastle 19 (16) Man U 17 (3)

Newcastle United team v Manchester United:

Dubravka, Trippier (Livramento 58), Schar, Burn, Hall, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton, Murphy (Barnes 85), Isak, Gordon (Willock 85)