Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle 1

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The Mag

·1. Dezember 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle 1

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Brentford 2.22 v Leicester 0.91 (4-1)

Crystal Palace 2.30 v Newcastle 0.02 (1-1)

Forest 1.77 v Ipswich o.46 (1-0)

Wolves 0.87 v Bournemouth 3.08 (2-4)

West Ham 1.24 v Arsenal 4.00 (2-5)

As you can see, in all five games, one side with a far higher Expected Goals stat than the opposition.

In four of the five games, that team with the much highest Expected Goals stat winning the match.

Obviously the match at Selhurst Park the odd one out.

On top of that, Newcastle United making (adding to) a bit of history, as they become only the eighth side on record (from the 2003-04 season) to avoid defeat in a Premier League game in which they attempted one shot or less, and the first since Leicester against the Magpies in May 2023. Newcastle with only one shot yesterday, which was off-target, their goal scored by Marc Guehi, who was… on-target.

For those of you who watched the game, I think Eddie Howe perfectly summed up the game afterwards…

“It was a strange game.

“We didn’t have any goalmouth action but I felt we were good in the game.

“I felt we nullified them pretty well.

“In the main, I think we controlled it pretty well.

“It is really gutting to concede the goal at the end.

“I felt like we had weathered the storm and we would see the game out.”

With the Expected Goals stat, the exception(s) prove the rule.

This season Newcastle United have found themselves on the other side of the equation, Eddie Howe’s side had a far higher Expected Goals stat than West Ham on Monday night but lost, the same at home to Brighton, when the difference was even greater when it came to the Expected Goals stats.

Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle 1 – Saturday 30 November 3pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Guehi OG 53

Palace:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Newcastle 51% (57%) Palace 49% (43%)

Total shots were Newcastle 1 (1) Palace 16 (5)

Shots on target were Newcastle 0 (0) Palace 4 (0)

Corners were Newcastle 9 (3) Palace 8 (3)

Touches in the box Newcastle 12 (5) Palace 24 (7)