England v Italy: Back Lionesses to make the final again | OneFootball

Euro 2025

England are one win away from another major final

After picking up winners at 9/2 and 23/10 from England's quarter-final win over Sweden, Kevin Hatchard's back with his best bets for the semi-final against Italy...

England v ItalyTuesday 22 July, 20:00Live on ITV 1

England somehow survived "most chaotic game"

The Lionesses stared into the abyss several times during their extraordinary quarter-final win over Sweden. They conceded the opener in clumsy fashion in the second minute, and when Stina Blackstenius powered her way past Jess Carter to make it 2-0 in the 25th minute, the alarm bells really were ringing.

In the second half, England were knocking on the door without it opening until coach Sarina Wiegman showed her nous by introducing Chloe Kelly and Michelle Agyemang as substitutes. Euro 2022 heroine Kelly crossed for the incredible Lucy Bronze to head home England's first goal, and she was involved in Agyemang's equaliser.

Even then England got themselves into trouble in the penalty shootout, only for Sweden to blow chance after chance to reach the semi-finals. Keeper Hannah Hampton, complete with bloodied nose, dragged the Lionesses into the final four with a Herculean effort. Wiegman described the match as the most chaotic of her career.

England have now reached the semi-finals at six consecutive major tournaments, which is an extraordinary level of consistency, and they have a huge amount of experience which is getting them out of trouble. However, Wiegman must address the careless giveaways in build-up, and find a way of getting more quality service to the tireless Alessia Russo in attack. The Arsenal forward had 47 touches against Sweden as she led the line brilliantly, but by the time a quality chance arrived at the end of extra time she was out on her feet.

England are hopeful that skipper Leah Williamson will be fit for the semi-final after rolling her ankle against Sweden. Her fellow centre-back Jess Carter had a torrid time in the opening stages of the quarter-final, and her replacement Esme Morgan is pushing for a start. Despite Kelly and Agyemang's excellent cameos, Wiegman is a stickler for consistency of selection, and it's likely that she will try to name an unchanged XI if fitness permits.

Italy riding the wave, but how good are they?

There comes a point when you have to accept that any side that reaches the semi-finals of a European Championship deserves to be there and has quality, and despite my reservations about Italy, there is a lot to like about Andrea Soncin's team. 35-year-old striker Cristiana Girelli has been defying football logic to show she still has what it takes at this level, and she delivered a match-winning brace against Norway in the quarter-finals, including a last-gasp header to snatch the tie.

In midfield, Arianna Caruso has been a positive force, shooting at every opportunity and driving the team forward. Full-backs Elisabetta Oliviero and Lucia Di Guglielmo did a brilliant job against Norway's excellent wingers last week, while Washington Spirit winger Sofia Cantore set up both of Girelli's goals. Italy are through to their first semi-finals since the 1990s on merit.

Italy also had some encouraging results in the build-up to this tournament. They took four points off the Netherlands in qualifying, and they took points off both Sweden and Denmark in the Nations League.

However, there are still doubts about what this team can do against a powerhouse like England. Italy were underwhelming in the group stage, despite giving Spain a scare, and their opponents Norway were truly dreadful in the quarter-finals. Italy were able to take advantage of some incredibly passive defending against Norway, and they won't get that luxury here.

Soncin isn't expected to make significant changes here, although there has been talk in the Italian media about a potential switch to a back three. There are no injury or suspension concerns, so Soncin does have the capacity to name an unchanged XI.

England to reach the final again

England's quarter-final win over Sweden felt like a transformative moment in this campaign, and every time they have had their backs against the wall they have delivered. The Lionesses smashed the Netherlands 4-0 in the group stage in a game they realistically had to win, and against Sweden they looked to be heading out so often, but they somehow survived. They have experience and nous that their Italian opponents lack at this level.

Italy play some lovely football when you give them space, but I don't believe England will make the same mistakes that Norway did. I'll back England to win and Italy defender Elena Linari to commit a foul at 21/20 on the Bet Builder. Linari will have her hands full with Russo, and the Roma centre-back has committed a foul in three of her four games at this tournament.

I'll also back Russo to score at 2.3 on the Exchange. Don't be put off by the fact that the Arsenal striker only has one goal in the tournament so far. She has been a tireless runner, and time and time again she is getting herself into good goalscoring positions. It's worth noting that against both Spain and Norway, Italy conceded a goal to the opposition's star centre-forward (Esther Gonzalez and Ada Hegerberg).

Russo scored 19 goals for Arsenal last season across the WSL and the Champions League. If she gets chances here, I'd back her to snap at least one of them up.

Recommended bets

Back England to win and Linari to commit a foul @ 21/20