Champions League power rankings (2023/24) | OneFootball

Highlights

The Champions League group stage has concluded, and we now know who all 16 teams are facing in the knockout stages when the Round of 16 kicks off in February 2024. European behemoths Real Madrid have been handed a tie against RB Leipzig, while Manchester City are set to take on the competition's surprise package, FC Copenhagen.

While the draw for the first round of knockout fixtures has given us some tasty ties to look forward to, the usual favourites are being discussed as potential winners. Will City get their hands on a second-consecutive trophy? Will Madrid claim the silverware for a 15th time and extend their lead in the rankings for most overall titles? Could Bayern Munich lift the prestigious trophy for the first time since 2020? Who knows.

Despite all the speculation and guess work that goes into these types of conversations, that hasn't stopped the team at GIVEMESPORT from trying to predict the outcome of the tournament. We have ranked every team in the last 16, based on how likely we think they are to win the tournament, considering factors like how they performed in the group stages, who each team will face in the next round, and how well they have performed historically in the knockout rounds.

Given that football has the ability to throw curveballs into the mix on a frequent basis, we could be way wide of the mark when a winner is crowned in June. But, without further ado, let's jump into the rankings.

We're fairly certain on this one. Copenhagen had a group stage to remember in 2023/24, recording a memorable victory against Manchester United at home, before then managing to secure qualification in their final match against Galatasaray.

The players and staff could not believe they had progressed to the knockout stages for the first time since the 2010/11 season. But, unfortunately, the Danish side now face an exceptionally difficult test in the form of Pep Guardiola's Man City. It will take a minor miracle for Copenhagen to best the current European champions, and we're fairly certain they'll be exiting the tournament in March.

Maurizio Sarri's squad performed pretty well in the group stage. A 2-0 victory against Celtic confirmed their place in the last 16, but Lazio needed a victory against Atletico Madrid in order to avoid any of the bigger teams in the first round of the knockout stage.

That did not happen, as the Spanish side confirmed their status as Group E winners in a 2-0 win. That kicked Lazio down the rankings, but their chances of winning the tournament took a huge hit when they were drawn against Bayern Munich. Also 11th in Serie A at the time of writing, they're not exactly in Champions League-winning form right now, so progression to the quarter-finals looks extremely unlikely.

The last 16 would have been the minimum expectation for RB Leipzig, given they were drawn in a relatively easy group which featured Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade. Although, as Manchester United fans will tell you, an easy draw guarantees nothing, so fair play to the German side for making it through.

They are a decent team with talented players such as Xavi Simons and Benjamin Sesko, who has attracted interest from Arsenal, but the big issue facing Marco Rose's side now is their opponent in the last 16. Drawn against Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid, who are right up there with the tournament favourites, not many are predicting Leipzig to get past Jude Bellingham and Co.

13 FC Porto

Finished 2nd Group H

Porto's match against Shakhtar Donetsk in the final game of Group H was a winner takes all game, with both sides on nine points. And it was the Portuguese club who stepped up and delivered. Winning their match 5-3 to progress to the next round, they finished on the same number of points as group winners Barcelona.

But now drawn against Arsenal in the next round, it's hard to see the two-time winners of the competition progressing into the quarter-finals. Porto haven't progressed to the last eight since 2020/21 when they were knocked out by Chelsea, and we're fairly certain they'll have to wait a while longer to add to their Champions League trophy haul.

Getting out of Group D was never going to be an easy job, with Real Sociedad, Inter Milan, Benfica and RB Salzburg all quality sides. But Sociedad were undefeated in all six matches, finishing on the same number of points as Inter but topping the group on goal difference, thanks to a 3-1 win against Benfica and a 2-0 victory against Salzburg.

Unfortunately for the Spanish side, they've been handed arguably the toughest draw they could have hoped for. A tie against Paris Saint-Germain awaits them, and given the firepower that Luis Enrique's team possesses, Sociedad's days as a Champions League team look numbered.

PSV Eindhoven just about scraped into the last 16, with their 1-1 draw against Arsenal seeing them finish one point ahead of Lens. Also flying in the Eredivisie at the moment, 10 points clear at the top of the table, they could pose a threat to their last 16 opponents, Borussia Dortmund.

A tie against the German side is one of the kinder draws Peter Bosz's team could have hoped for, and while Dortmund will come into the game as the favourites, PSV stand a decent chance of causing an upset. But this is unfamiliar territory for the Dutch club. They have not reached this stage of the tournament since 2015/16, where they were knocked out by Atletico Madrid, and it would be a shock to see them reach the latter stages of the tournament, let alone see them win the whole thing.

Barcelona haven't exactly been having an incredible time lately. Third in La Liga behind Girona and Real Madrid, pressure is increasing on Xavi. Spanish outlet Relevo reported that members of the club were losing faith in him before their final match against Royal Antwerp. And after losing 3-2 to the Belgian side, Forbes have reported that while Xavi currently has the confidence of club president Joan Laporta, he could face consequences if no trophies are won this season.

Barca still managed to top Group H despite their embarrassing defeat to Antwerp and all the noise going on in the background, but the draw has dealt them a harsh hand. Given a two-legged tie against current Serie A champions Napoli, Xavi and the Blaugrana will have to figure out how to keep the likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen quiet. If their current woes persist, we expect them to be eliminated.

9 Napoli

Finished 2nd in Group C

Speaking of Napoli... Walter Mazzarri's side more or less fulfilled expectations by finishing second in Group C, with them never likely to triumph over Real Madrid and top the table. And now, a tie against another La Liga giant in the form of Barcelona awaits them.

Gli Azzurri have multiple players who can cause Barca headaches in the next round. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, while not flying quite as high as he did last season, remains an excellent player, as does Victor Osimhen, a fact which was showcased by his mind-blowing assist in Napoli's 2-1 win against Cagliari. This last 16 tie is one of the harder ones to predict, with it likely to be an enthralling occasion for fans.

8 Inter Milan

Finished 2nd in Group D

Not finishing first in their group slightly damaged Inter Milan's chances here. Had they done so, they would have been much higher in this ranking as they would have been able to avoid one of the heavyweights, but the 2023 Champions League finalists now face a much more difficult task in the last 16 in the form of Atletico Madrid.

Getting past Diego Simeone's squad won't be easy, but the three-time winners of the competition will still fancy their chances. They are blessed with talented players like Marcus Thuram, Nicolo Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and are in great form domestically, ahead of Juventus at the top of Serie A. Not many predicted them to be finalists last year either, so write them off at your peril.

7 Borussia Dortmund

Finished 1st in Group F

Qualifying from the 'group of death' takes some doing, but Borussia Dortmund managed it with a game to spare. Statement wins against Newcastle and AC Milan guaranteed them a place in the last 16, and a 1-1 draw against PSG on the final day ensured their status as group winners.

Given that they lost star player Jude Bellingham over the summer, many might be surprised to see them in the knockout stages, but even more fans would be surprised to see them lift a second Champions League in June, despite facing an easier challenge in the last 16 in the form of PSV. Looking past that, though, while they have a talented squad which includes Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, do they have the firepower to rival some of the other teams who are still in the tournament? Arguably not.

6 Atletico Madrid

Finished 1st in Group E

Having suffered an embarrassing group stage exit last season in what was a relatively tame group, Diego Simeone looks to have got Atletico Madrid back to their best. A big result on the final day against Lazio put them in an excellent position for the last 16 draw, but a match against Inter Milan won't be easy for Los Colchoneros.

Last season's finalists, as previously discussed, have lots going for them at the moment, but so do Atleti. Their manager is a big reason why they rank higher here, as his experience of grinding out results gives them an advantage over their Italian opponents. Quality players like Manchester United transfer target Antoinne Griezmann also give them a chance of getting their hands on the trophy, but we don't see them beating the teams above them if they come up against them.

5 Paris Saint-Germain

Finished 2nd in Group F

Putting the team who finished second in Group F above the winners of the mini-table might seem a tad bizarre, but all things considered, Paris Saint-Germain have a much higher chance of winning the tournament than Dortmund. They weren't at their best in Group F, with losses to Newcastle and AC Milan leading to speculation they could be heading into the Europa League.

However, Newcastle's 2-1 loss to Milan ensured the French side qualified in second, and having been drawn against Sociedad for the first round of knockout fixtures, fans will expect the Ligue 1 champions to advance to the quarter-finals. Kylian Mbappe, one of the best players in the world right now, strikes fear into anyone he comes up against, and he has the ability to drag PSG into a Champions League final all by himself.

4 Arsenal

Finished 1st in Group B

Back in the Champions League for the first time since 2017 and back into the knockout stages at the first time of asking. Arsenal, bar a minor hiccup in gameweek 2 against Lens, made light work of Group B, with some impressive wins against PSV and a 6-0 thrashing against Lens the standout performances.

With talents like Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka in attack, Mikel Arteta's side have a great chance of getting to the latter stages of the tournament, especially given how impressive they have looked in 2023/24 and their favourable draw against Porto. Inexperience is the only thing that prevents them ranking any higher, with the teams above them well-versed when it comes to high-pressure knockout football. That being said, perhaps the Gunners will surprise us all.

3 Bayern Munich

Finished 1st in Group A

Having barely gotten out of second gear for many of their matches in Group A, Bayern Munich will face a much sterner test in the knockout rounds. That being said, the ease with which they dispatched Manchester United, Copenhagen and Galatasaray will have nearly every side concerned.

Thomas Tuchel has proven he can take a team to the summit of European football, and he has a far better squad than the one he had while at Chelsea. Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane can cause any defence problems, and the free-scoring Harry Kane has slotted into the first team brilliantly in his first few months in Germany. Only Rasmus Hojlund, Erling Haaland, and Alvaro Morata have scored more than the Englishman (4) so far in the tournament, and he could go clear at the top of the charts after Bayern's matches against Lazio.

2 Real Madrid

Finished 1st in Group C

The top two of any Champions League ranking this season feels like they are pretty set in stone, and we would not blame you for putting Real Madrid first. Los Blancos have looked dominant in every Champions League match so far, brushing Napoli aside twice and dispatching Union Berlin and Braga with ease.

Jude Bellingham is the jewel in the crown at the moment, and nobody would question his place in the tournament's Team of the Group Stage, but the sheer quality of Madrid's squad is frightening. Vinicus Jr, Rodrygo, Luka Modric, Antonio Rudiger, Eduardo Camavinga... We could go on and on and on. Carlo Ancelotti's side had a 100% win record in Group C, and we don't see their unbeaten run in the tournament being ended by Leipzig in the last 16. With all the firepower, Madrid fear absolutely no-one in the knockout rounds. Well, maybe with one exception...

1 Manchester City

Finished 1st in Group G

Manchester City are yet to be really tested in their Champions League run thus far, making every game in Group G look like a walk in the park. Also finishing with a 100% winning record, City, like Madrid, shipped just seven goals in their six matches, but scored two more than the Spanish side.

That's not the only other reason we've put them at number one, though. The main reason behind that is what happened when Pep Guardiola's side played Ancelotti's squad last season in the Champions League. Madrid were destroyed 5-1 on aggregate, with that 4-0 win at the Etihad arguably being the night City were crowned champions. Copenhagen are unlikely to be a huge challenge to City's bid to win a second Champions League, and if Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, and the rest of City's squad are available and at their best, it will take a monumental effort to stop them.